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An exploratory inquiry into the impact of budget deficits on the nominal interest rate yield on Moody's Aaa-rated corporate bonds, 1973--2012

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  • Richard J. Cebula

Abstract

This exploratory empirical article provides recent evidence on the impact of the US federal budget deficit on the nominal interest rate yield on Moody's Aaa-rated long-term corporate bonds. The study is couched within a loanable funds model that includes an ex ante real short-term real interest rate yield, the monetary base, expected inflation and the change in per capita real GDP. Using data for the period 1973--2012, which time frame includes 'quantitative easing' monetary policies in the US, autoregressive two-stage least squares estimation reveals the preliminary finding that the federal budget deficit, expressed as a per cent of GDP, has exercised a positive and statistically significant impact on the nominal interest rate yield on Moody's Aaa-rated long-term corporate bonds, even after allowing for 'quantifying easing' and other factors.

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  • Richard J. Cebula, 2013. "An exploratory inquiry into the impact of budget deficits on the nominal interest rate yield on Moody's Aaa-rated corporate bonds, 1973--2012," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(16), pages 1497-1500, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:16:p:1497-1500
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2013.826869
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    1. Bharat R. Kolluri & Rao N. Singamesetti & P. A. V. B. Swamy, 1988. "What do regressions of interest rates on deficits imply?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    3. Bradley Ewing & Mark Yanochik, 1999. "Budget deficits and the term structure of interest rates in Italy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 199-201.
    4. Cebula, Richard, 1996. "An Empirical Note on the Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on Ex Ante Real Long-Term, Interest Rates, 1973-1995," MPRA Paper 51414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Richard J. Cebula, 2005. "Recent empirical evidence on the impact of the primary budget deficit on nominal longer term treasury note interest rate yields," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 47-58.
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    1. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "Have U.S. Budget Deficits Raised the Real Interest Rate Yield on Tax-Free Municipal Bonds?," MPRA Paper 55545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cebula, Richard J. & Foley, Maggie, 2019. "An Empirical Analysis for the U.S. of the Effects of Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yields on Thirty-Year and Twenty-Year Treasury Bonds," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(2), pages 231-252.
    3. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Investigation into the Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yield on Treasury Notes in the U.S," MPRA Paper 57317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Richard Cebula & Fiorentina Angjellari-Dajci & Maggie Foley, 2014. "An exploratory empirical inquiry into the impact of federal budget deficits on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year Treasury notes over the last half century," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 712-720, October.
    5. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Real Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Treasury Debt Issues, 1972-2012," MPRA Paper 55269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Richard J. Cebula, 2018. "Impact of U.S. federal government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on ten-year treasury notes during the post-Bretton Woods (1972–2016) era," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 828-835, October.
    7. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "An exploratory analysis of the impact of budget deficits and other factors on the ex post real interest rate yield on tax-free municipal bonds in the United States," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1297-1302, October.

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