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Weak instruments in estimating business cycle effects on banks' interest income

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  • Moritz Hahn
  • Edward J. O'Brien

Abstract

This article explores the link between the real business cycle and core bank earnings. Using bank-level data and an estimation technique which corrects for weak instruments, evidence confirms that pre-provision Net Interest Income (NII) is determined by the term structure of interest rates rather than output fluctuations. Output growth is only found to be significant when Loan-Loss Provisions (LLP) are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Moritz Hahn & Edward J. O'Brien, 2012. "Weak instruments in estimating business cycle effects on banks' interest income," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(14), pages 1417-1420, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:14:p:1417-1420
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.631884
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