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Fiscal stimulus for the USA in the current financial crisis: what does 1930-2008 tell us?

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  • Jonathan Leightner

Abstract

This article uses Bi-directional Reiterative Truncated Projected Least Squares (BD-RTPLS) to estimate annual dGDP/dG (GDP, Gross Domestic Product and G, government spending) multipliers for the USA between 1930 and 2008. The analysis is redone with quarterly data from 1947 to 2008. To account for the influence of omitted variables, BD-RTPLS produces a separate dGPP/dG estimate for every observation in the data set. I find that whenever the US government increases government spending by an unusually large amount in a given year or quarter, the resulting government spending multiplier plummets. This is not good news for the current US government which is hoping that a huge fiscal stimulus package will rescue the USA from the current crisis.

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  • Jonathan Leightner, 2011. "Fiscal stimulus for the USA in the current financial crisis: what does 1930-2008 tell us?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 539-549.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:18:y:2011:i:6:p:539-549
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851003724374
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leightner, Jonathan E. & Inoue, Tomoo, 2007. "Tackling the omitted variables problem without the strong assumptions of proxies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 178(3), pages 819-840, May.
    2. Jonathan Leightner, 2005. "The Productivity of Government Spending in Asia: 1983–2000," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 33-46, January.
    3. Leightner, Jonathan E. & Inoue, Tomoo, 2008. "Capturing climate's effect on pollution abatement with an improved solution to the omitted variables problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 540-557, December.
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    1. Jonathan E Leightner & Tomoo Inoue, 2014. "Political Instability and the Effectiveness of Economic Policies: The Case of Thailand from 1993-2013," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 1(1), pages 20-31.
    2. Jonathan E. Leightner, 2013. "The Changing Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Economies, MDPI, vol. 1(3), pages 1-16, November.

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