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Recurring patterns in the run-up to house price busts

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  • Prakash Kannan
  • Pau Rabanal
  • Alasdair Scott

Abstract

We present evidence that shows that large increases in credit and residential investment shares, along with deteriorating current account balances, provide useful leading indicators of house price busts. These variables also explain cross-sectional patterns in the build-up to the 2007 crisis. Interestingly, movements in output and inflation have little ability to predict house price busts.

Suggested Citation

  • Prakash Kannan & Pau Rabanal & Alasdair Scott, 2011. "Recurring patterns in the run-up to house price busts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 107-113.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:107-113
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850903427161
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    Cited by:

    1. Hui An & Lijie Yu & Rakesh Gupta, 2016. "Capital Inflows and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from China," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 451-475, December.
    2. Karolien De Bruyne & Jan Van Hove, 2013. "Explaining the spatial variation in housing prices: an economic geography approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 1673-1689, May.
    3. Tillmann, Peter, 2013. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 717-729.
    4. Orrego, Fabrizio, 2014. "Precios de viviendas en Lima," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 28, pages 47-59.

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