IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v17y2010i17p1703-1708.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The determinants of default risk in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Luiz Ferreira

Abstract

We formulated a general unrestricted model of the Brazilian Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) spreads, a proxy for the country's default risk. Employing algorithms that perform automated model selection, we found that macroeconomic fundamentals, such as current account deficit ratio to gross domestic product, public deficit ratio to gross domestic product and imports over foreign exchange reserves, can explain a great part of the variation in EMBI+ spreads. There is also robust evidence of systematic contagion from Argentina and Mexico and that the variance of the spread also affects its mean.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2010. "The determinants of default risk in Brazil," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(17), pages 1703-1708.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:17:p:1703-1708
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850903120741
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/13504850903120741&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13504850903120741?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June.
    2. Berk, Jan Marc & Knot, Klaas H. W., 2001. "Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-based exchange rate expectations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 377-391, February.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Pires Tiberto & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2016. "A Importância Da Administração Da Dívida Pública Para A Construção Da Reputação Fiscal E Redução Do Risco-País: Evidências Empíricas Para O Brasil," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 025, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo & Pereira, Flavio, 2022. "Does fiscal sentiment matter for sovereign risk?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 18-30.
    3. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2012. "Macroeconomic environment, country risk and stock market performance: Evidence for Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1666-1678.
    4. Anna Buchholz & Cesar Cupertino & Roberto Meurer & Andre Portela Santos & Newton Da Costa, 2012. "The market reaction to changes in the Brazilian official interest rate," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(14), pages 1359-1364, September.
    5. Luiz de Mello & Diego Moccero, 2006. "Consolidating Macroeconomic Adjustment in Brazil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 531, OECD Publishing.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Exchange rate parities and Taylor rule deviations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1809-1835, October.
    2. Jose Sanchez-fung, 2005. "Estimating a monetary policy reaction function for the dominican republic," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 563-577.
    3. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    4. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002.
    5. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 476, Stockholm School of Economics.
    6. Luboš Komárek & Filip Rozsypal, 2009. "Vymezení a vyhodnocení agresivity centrálních bank [Definition and Evaluation of the Central Bank agresivity]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(3), pages 383-404.
    7. Eric Parrado & Andrés Velasco, 2002. "Alternative Monetary Rules in the Open Economy: A Welfare-Based Approach," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 7, pages 295-348, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Kartono, Agus & Solekha, Siti & Sumaryada, Tony & Irmansyah,, 2021. "Foreign currency exchange rate prediction using non-linear Schrödinger equations with economic fundamental parameters," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Weymark, Diana N., 2004. "Economic structure, policy objectives, and optimal interest rate policy at low inflation rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 25-51, March.
    10. Mr. Kadima D. Kalonji & Jan Gottschalk & Mr. Ken Miyajima, 2008. "Analyzing Determinants of Inflation When There Are Data Limitation: The Case of Sierra Leone," IMF Working Papers 2008/271, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershauser, Timo, 2001. "Is there a third way to EMU for the EU accession countries?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 253-274, September.
    12. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    13. Carlo Altavilla, 2003. "Assessing monetary rules performance across EMU countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 131-151.
    14. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.
    15. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    16. Martha Misas A. & Carlos Esteban Posada P & Diego Mauricio Vásquez E, 2003. "¿Está determinado el nivel de precios por las expectativas de dinero y producto en Colombia?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 21(43), pages 8-31, June.
    17. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Monetary Policy and the Open Economy," Introductory Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework, Princeton University Press.
    18. Michael Kumhof, 2002. "A Critical View of Inflation Targeting: Crises, Limited Sustaintability, and Aggregate Shocks," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 8, pages 349-394, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Costantini, Mauro & Pappalardo, Carmine, 2010. "A hierarchical procedure for the combination of forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 725-743, October.
    20. Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Mr. Christopher S Adam & Mr. Edward F Buffie, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa," IMF Working Papers 2004/216, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:17:p:1703-1708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.