IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v17y2010i12p1193-1196.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A corrected Value-at-Risk predictor

Author

Listed:
  • Carl Lonnbark

Abstract

In this article, it is argued that the estimation error in Value-at-Risk (VaR) predictors gives rise to underestimation of portfolio risk. We propose a simple correction and find in an empirical illustration that it is economically relevant.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Lonnbark, 2010. "A corrected Value-at-Risk predictor," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1193-1196.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:12:p:1193-1196
    DOI: 10.1080/17446540902817619
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/17446540902817619&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/17446540902817619?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Bruce E., 2006. "Interval forecasts and parameter uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 377-398.
    2. Bao, Yong & Ullah, Aman, 2004. "Bias of a Value-at-Risk estimator," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 241-249, December.
    3. Hang Chan, Ngai & Deng, Shi-Jie & Peng, Liang & Xia, Zhendong, 2007. "Interval estimation of value-at-risk based on GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 556-576, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saeed Shaker-Akhtekhane & Solmaz Poorabbas, 2023. "Value-at-Risk Estimation Using an Interpolated Distribution of Financial Returns Series," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(1), pages 1-6.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boucher, Christophe M. & Daníelsson, Jón & Kouontchou, Patrick S. & Maillet, Bertrand B., 2014. "Risk models-at-risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 72-92.
    2. Gourieroux, Christian & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2013. "Estimation-Adjusted Var," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 735-770, August.
    3. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of regional housing prices in the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(22), pages 2259-2277, May.
    5. Oliver Linton & Dajing Shang & Yang Yan, 2012. "Efficient estimation of conditional risk measures in a semiparametric GARCH model," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/12, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Cyril Coste & Raphaël Douady & Ilija I Zovko, 2010. "The StressVaR: A New Risk Concept for Extreme Risk and Fund Allocation," Post-Print hal-02488591, HAL.
    7. Lee, Yun Shin & Scholtes, Stefan, 2014. "Empirical prediction intervals revisited," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 217-234.
    8. Virta, Joni & Lietzén, Niko & Viitasaari, Lauri & Ilmonen, Pauliina, 2024. "Latent model extreme value index estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    9. Nieto, María Rosa & Carmona-Benítez, Rafael Bernardo, 2018. "ARIMA + GARCH + Bootstrap forecasting method applied to the airline industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-8.
    10. Mergani A. Khairalla & Xu Ning & Nashat T. AL-Jallad & Musaab O. El-Faroug, 2018. "Short-Term Forecasting for Energy Consumption through Stacking Heterogeneous Ensemble Learning Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, June.
    11. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K. Hassani & Kehan Li, 2016. "Measuring risks in the extreme tail: The extreme VaR and its confidence interval," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16034rr, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Jan 2017.
    12. Marius Lux & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Stefan Lessmann, 2020. "Data driven value-at-risk forecasting using a SVR-GARCH-KDE hybrid," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 947-981, September.
    13. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    14. Xin Zhao & Carl John Scarrott & Marco Reale & Les Oxley, 2009. "Bayesian Extreme Value Mixture Modelling for Estimating VaR," Working Papers in Economics 09/15, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    15. Sun, Shuxiao & Hua, Shengya & Liu, Zhongyi, 2024. "Navigating default risk in supply chain finance: Guidelines based on trade credit and equity vendor financing," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    16. João Henrique Gonçalves Mazzeu & Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2018. "Uncertainty And Density Forecasts Of Arma Models: Comparison Of Asymptotic, Bayesian, And Bootstrap Procedures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 388-419, April.
    17. Yen-Hsien Lee & Hao Fang & Wei-Fan SU, 2014. "Effectiveness of Portfolio Diversification and the Dynamic Relationship between Stock and Currency Markets in the Emerging Eastern European and Russian Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 296-311, September.
    18. Hoga, Yannick, 2021. "The uncertainty in extreme risk forecasts from covariate-augmented volatility models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 675-686.
    19. Christophe Hurlin & Sébastien Laurent & Rogier Quaedvlieg & Stephan Smeekes, 2017. "Risk Measure Inference," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 499-512, October.
    20. Cheng, Wan-Hsiu & Hung, Jui-Cheng, 2011. "Skewness and leptokurtosis in GARCH-typed VaR estimation of petroleum and metal asset returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 160-173, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:17:y:2010:i:12:p:1193-1196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.