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Consensus and accuracy of Japanese GDP forecasts

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  • Masahiro Ashiya

Abstract

This article investigates the real gross domestic product forecasts of Japanese institutional forecasters for 25 years. It finds that a consensus forecast does not exist in 9/8 years for the current-year/year-ahead forecasts. The variance of the forecast distribution is positively correlated with the absolute forecast error of its mean forecast, but the correlation is significant for the current-year forecasts only. The economy tends to hit the peak or the bottom when forecast dispersion is large, but nonparametric analysis shows that the correlation is statistically insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiro Ashiya, 2007. "Consensus and accuracy of Japanese GDP forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 969-974.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:14:y:2007:i:13:p:969-974
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850600705976
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    Cited by:

    1. H. O. Stekler & Kazuta Sakamoto, 2010. "Evaluating current-year forecasts made during the year: a Japanese example," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 673-676.
    2. Wegener, Michael & Westerhoff, Frank & Zaklan, Georg, 2009. "A Metzlerian business cycle model with nonlinear heterogeneous expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 715-720, May.

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