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Convergence of fiscal policies in EMU: a unit-root tests analysis with structural break

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  • Christophe Blot
  • Francisco Serranito

Abstract

The aim of this study is first to determine whether the fiscal policy among EMU countries have converged and then to identify the source of the convergence process. The convergence of fiscal policies was at the core of the fiscal criteria imposed by the Maastricht treaty but it may also have resulted from the economic and financial integration that preceded the Treaty. Some unit-root tests are implemented on the cross-country variance for various fiscal policy indicators where a break in the intercept and the trend is allowed to catch whether the convergence is due to institutional arrangements or to economic integration. We conclude that the fiscal position has converged but the break date, selected before 1992, indicates that the convergence process preceded the Maastricht treaty. Considering the fiscal receipts, the hypothesis of convergence is accepted only when they are adjusted from the cyclical component. The convergence of fiscal expenditures is finally clearly rejected.

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  • Christophe Blot & Francisco Serranito, 2006. "Convergence of fiscal policies in EMU: a unit-root tests analysis with structural break," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 211-216.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:13:y:2006:i:4:p:211-216
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850500396009
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    2. Baskaran, Thushyanthan, 2009. "Did the Maastricht treaty matter for macroeconomic performance?," MPRA Paper 30106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Athanasios Anastasiou & Nicholas Apergis & Athina Zervoyianni, 2024. "Convergence of public expenditures and revenues in EU28 during 2002–2019: Evidence from club‐clustering analysis before and after the European debt crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1856-1876, April.
    4. Francisco J. Delgado Rivero (*), "undated". "Are The Tax Mix And The Fiscal Pressure Converging In The European Union?," Working Papers 11-06 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
    5. Elena Villar Rubio & Quesada Rubio & José Manuel & Valentín Molina Moreno, 2015. "Convergence Analysis of Environmental Fiscal Pressure across EU-15 Countries," Energy & Environment, , vol. 26(5), pages 789-802, September.
    6. Pui Sun Tam, 2018. "Economic Transition and Growth Dynamics in Asia: Harmony or Discord?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(3), pages 361-387, September.
    7. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2014. "Tax revenues convergence across ASEAN, Pacific and Oceania countries: Evidence from club convergence," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 11-21.
    8. Francisco Delgado & Maria Jose Presno, 2011. "Convergence of fiscal pressure in the EU: a time series approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(28), pages 4257-4267.
    9. Delgado, Francisco J. & Fernández-Rodríguez, Elena & Martínez-Arias, Antonio & Presno, Maria J., 2019. "Club convergence in the corporate income tax: The case of European effective rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 942-953.
    10. Roberto Censolo & Caterina Colombo, 2015. "The Early Consequences of the Crisis on Fiscal Convergence in the EU," Working Papers 2015024, University of Ferrara, Department of Economics.
    11. Moutinho, Victor & Robaina-Alves, Margarita & Mota, Jorge, 2014. "Carbon dioxide emissions intensity of Portuguese industry and energy sectors: A convergence analysis and econometric approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 438-449.

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