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Do art specialists form unbiased pre-sale estimates? An application for Picasso paintings

Author

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  • Corinna Czujack
  • Maria Fraga Martins

Abstract

This work investigates whether art specialists provide good predictors of realized prices for Picasso paintings. A sample selection model is proposed to represent the decision of the seller and the price equation. The model is applied to data on 675 Picasso paintings for the period 1975-1994. It is found that the two auction houses, Sotheby's and Christie's, have given good predictions for the works that have been sold. However, for the unsold works, it would have been possible to give estimates better than those given by the salerooms. As a consequence they could perhaps have sold more paintings than they actually did.

Suggested Citation

  • Corinna Czujack & Maria Fraga Martins, 2004. "Do art specialists form unbiased pre-sale estimates? An application for Picasso paintings," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 245-249.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:11:y:2004:i:4:p:245-249
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850410001674894
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tim R. L. Fry, 2020. "Heterogeneity in Auction Price Distributions for Australian Indigenous Artists," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(313), pages 177-186, June.
    2. Calin Valsan & Robert Sproule, 2008. "Reservation Prices And Pre-Auction Estimates: A Study In Abstract Art," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 10(24), pages 257-272, June.
    3. Lan Ju & Zhiyong Tu & Changyong Xue, 2020. "Pricing the Information Quantity in Artworks," Papers 2011.09129, arXiv.org.
    4. Hellmanzik, Christiane, 2016. "Historic art exhibitions and modern - day auction results," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 421-430.
    5. Calin Valsan & Robert Sproule, 2006. "Hedonic Models and Pre-Auction Estimates: Abstract Art Revisited," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 26(5), pages 1-10.
    6. Lan Ju & Zhiyong Tu & Changyong Xue, 2019. "Art Pricing with Computer Graphic Techniques," Papers 1910.03800, arXiv.org.
    7. Lisa Farrell & Tim R.L. Fry, 2017. "Pre-sale information and hammer prices for Australian Indigenous art," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(5), pages 483-500, November.
    8. Shailendra Gurjar & Usha Ananthakumar, 2023. "Presale Estimates and Auction Prices in Indian Art Market: Accuracy, Determinants and Motivations," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(3), pages 555-567, September.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:26:y:2006:i:5:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS

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