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The Role of Expert Judgment in Statistical Inference and Evidence-Based Decision-Making

Author

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  • Naomi C. Brownstein
  • Thomas A. Louis
  • Anthony O’Hagan
  • Jane Pendergast

Abstract

This article resulted from our participation in the session on the “role of expert opinion and judgment in statistical inference” at the October 2017 ASA Symposium on Statistical Inference. We present a strong, unified statement on roles of expert judgment in statistics with processes for obtaining input, whether from a Bayesian or frequentist perspective. Topics include the role of subjectivity in the cycle of scientific inference and decisions, followed by a clinical trial and a greenhouse gas emissions case study that illustrate the role of judgments and the importance of basing them on objective information and a comprehensive uncertainty assessment. We close with a call for increased proactivity and involvement of statisticians in study conceptualization, design, conduct, analysis, and communication.

Suggested Citation

  • Naomi C. Brownstein & Thomas A. Louis & Anthony O’Hagan & Jane Pendergast, 2019. "The Role of Expert Judgment in Statistical Inference and Evidence-Based Decision-Making," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(S1), pages 56-68, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:amstat:v:73:y:2019:i:s1:p:56-68
    DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2018.1529623
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    Cited by:

    1. Wu Shiya & Schouten Barry & Meijers Ralph & Moerbeek Mirjam, 2022. "Data Collection Expert Prior Elicitation in Survey Design: Two Case Studies," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 38(2), pages 637-662, June.
    2. Chethika Gunasiri Wadumestrige Dona & Geetha Mohan & Kensuke Fukushi, 2021. "Promoting Urban Agriculture and Its Opportunities and Challenges—A Global Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Irina Vinogradova-Zinkevič, 2021. "Application of Bayesian Approach to Reduce the Uncertainty in Expert Judgments by Using a Posteriori Mean Function," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-23, October.
    4. Katarina Buganova & Maria Luskova & Jozef Kubas & Michal Brutovsky & Jaroslav Slepecky, 2021. "Sustainability of Business through Project Risk Identification with Use of Expert Estimates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, June.
    5. la Cecilia, Daniele & Maggi, Federico, 2020. "Influential sources of uncertainty in glyphosate biochemical degradation in soil," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 121-139.
    6. Amir Mukeri & Habibullah Shaikh & D. P. Gaikwad, 2020. "Financial Data Analysis Using Expert Bayesian Framework For Bankruptcy Prediction," Papers 2010.13892, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    7. Adán Acosta-Banda & Verónica Aguilar-Esteva & Miguel Patiño Ortiz & Julián Patiño Ortiz, 2021. "Construction and Validity of an Instrument to Evaluate Renewable Energies and Energy Sustainability Perceptions for Social Consciousness," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-14, February.

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