IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/srs/jtpref/v7y2016i1p53-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Drivers of Low Inflation in Malta after the Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Brian MICALLEF

    (Modelling and Research Department, Central Bank of Malta, Malta)

Abstract

Despite robust growth, inflation in Malta has been subdued after the crisis and lower than what a Phillips curve would imply. This study examines the determinants of low inflation by comparing inflation forecasts conditioning on three groups of variables – real activity, external and financial – to see which one of these categories best explains post-crisis inflation. The analysis is conducted within a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) framework over two different disinflation periods, the first one starting in mid-2008 and the other one in 2012. For Malta, forecasts conditional on the path of the external variables are the closest to the actual path of inflation in both periods. On the contrary, in the euro area, the first episode was driven by external factors but domestic factors played a more important role in the second one. This point to the significant cross-country heterogeneity among euro area countries even in the face of apparently similar patterns in headline inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian MICALLEF, 2016. "Drivers of Low Inflation in Malta after the Crisis," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 53-62.
    • Handle: RePEc:srs:jtpref:v:7:y:2016:i:1:p:53-62
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:srs:jtpref:v:7:y:2016:i:1:p:53-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Claudiu Popirlan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://journals.aserspublishing.eu/tpref .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.