IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/srs/jasf00/v9y2018i1p34-44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probability Forecast Using Fan Chart Analysis A Case of the Sierra Leone Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Emerson JACKSON

    (Research Department Bank of Sierra Leone Sierra Leone)

  • Edmund TAMUKE

    (Research Department Bank of Sierra Leone Sierra Leone)

Abstract

This article made use of ARIMAX methodology in producing probability forecast from Fan Chart analysis for the Sierra Leone economy In view of the estimation technique used to determine best model choice for outputting the Fan Chart the outcomes have shown the importance of Exchange Rate variable as an exogenous component in influencing Inflation dynamics in Sierra Leone The use of Brier Score probability was also used to ascertain the accuracy of the forecast methodology Despite inflation outcome is showing an upward trend for the forecasted periods the probability bands upper and lower have also revealed the peculiarity of the Sierra Leone economy when it comes to addressing policy measures for controlling spiralling inflation dynamics

Suggested Citation

  • Emerson JACKSON & Edmund TAMUKE, 2018. "Probability Forecast Using Fan Chart Analysis A Case of the Sierra Leone Economy," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 34-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:srs:jasf00:v:9:y:2018:i:1:p:34-44
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jackson Emerson Abraham, 2017. "Theoretical and Methodological Context of (Post)-Modern Econometrics and Competing Philosophical Discourses for Policy Prescription," Journal of Heterodox Economics, Sciendo, vol. 4(2), pages 119-129, December.
    2. Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2020. "Understanding SLL / US$ exchange rate dynamics in Sierra Leone using Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach," MPRA Paper 97965, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Jan 2020.
    3. Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Tamuke, Edmund, 2019. "Predicting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Sierra Leone using ARIMA model," MPRA Paper 96845, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Dec 2019.
    4. Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2020. "Importance of the Public Service in Achieving the UN SDGs," MPRA Paper 101806, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Jun 2020.
    5. Emerson Abraham JACKSON & Mohamed JABBİE & Edmund TAMUKE & Augustine NGOMBU, 2020. "Adoption of Inflation Targeting in Sierra Leone: An Empirical Discourse," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 21-50, July.
    6. JACKSON Emerson Abraham & TAMUKE Edmund & JABBIE Mohamed, 2019. "Disaggregated Short-Term Inflation Forecast (Stif) For Monetary Policy Decision In Sierra Leone," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 71(3), pages 31-53, November.
    7. Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Tamuke, Edmund, 2021. "The Science and Art of Communicating Fan Chart Uncertainty: The case of Inflation Outcome in Sierra Leone," MPRA Paper 105892, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2021.
    8. Jackson, Emerson Abraham & Kamara, Purity & Kamara, Abdulsalam, 2022. "Determinants of Inflation in Sierra Leone," MPRA Paper 117278, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2023.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:srs:jasf00:v:9:y:2018:i:1:p:34-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Claudiu Popirlan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://journals.aserspublishing.eu/jasf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.