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Market Trends and Options Trading: Viewpoint, Probability and Implications

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Listed:
  • Monica Guling Wu
  • Hsinan Hsu
  • Janchung Wang

Abstract

In Dow theory, market trends are classified as secular trends for long-term frames, primary trends for medium-term frames, and secondary trends for short-term frames. For the long and medium terms, they can consist of major bull (bear) markets and minor bear (bull) markets; for the short terms, they may have corrections and bear rallies. These definitions of market trends are not very helpful to options traders because in practice, options trading is often done on a short-term time frame and options have a unique property of time value. Even in a bull market, there is a possibility of losing all money for buying call options; in a bear market, there is a probability of earning money for buying call options. This inconsistency often troubles options traders deeply. From the viewpoint of options trading, we introduce a new concept of analyzing the market trends and propose new methods for estimating the probabilities of the market trends since at any time the future prices are unknown. By simplifying the market trends into three concepts of uptrend, downtrend, and neutral trend, it will have consistent implications for options trading.JEL classification numbers:Â C13, G10, G13.Keywords:Â Market trends, Options trading, Trend probability, Estimation methods, Trading implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica Guling Wu & Hsinan Hsu & Janchung Wang, 2021. "Market Trends and Options Trading: Viewpoint, Probability and Implications," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(5), pages 1-5.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:apfiba:v:11:y:2021:i:5:f:11_5_5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Santa-Clara, Pedro & Saretto, Alessio, 2009. "Option strategies: Good deals and margin calls," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 391-417, August.
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:711-753 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Joshua D. Coval & Tyler Shumway, 2001. "Expected Option Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 983-1009, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    â market trends; options trading; trend probability; estimation methods; trading implications.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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