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Unsicherheit der Unternehmen lähmt Konjunktur
[Companies Uncertainty paralyses Business Cycle]

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Grömling

    (Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln)

  • Jürgen Matthes

    (Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln e.V.)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich im Sog handelspolitischer Verunsicherungen. Der Begriff der ökonomischen Unsicherheit ist facettenreich, aber zahlreiche theoretische und empirische Studien mit unterschiedlichen Messkonzepten und Methoden zeigen: Es besteht ein klarer Zusammenhang zwischen einem Anstieg der Unsicherheit und negativen Auswirkungen auf Wirtschaftsaktivität, Handel und vor allem Investitionen. Tatsächlich weisen wichtige Indikatoren aktuell ein hohes Maß an Unsicherheit aus. Dazu zählt auch das hier vorgestellte Dispersionsmaß für die Produktionserwartungen in Deutschland auf Basis der IW-Konjunkturumfrage. Damit dürfte die gestiegene Unsicherheit zum Erlahmen der Konjunktur in Deutschland beigetragen haben.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Grömling & Jürgen Matthes, 2019. "Unsicherheit der Unternehmen lähmt Konjunktur [Companies Uncertainty paralyses Business Cycle]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(12), pages 855-862, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:99:y:2019:i:12:d:10.1007_s10273-019-2540-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-019-2540-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus S. Friesenbichler & Werner Hölzl & Agnes Kügler & Andreas Reinstaller, 2021. "Unternehmerische Unsicherheit und wirtschaftspolitische Risikofaktoren in der COVID-19-Krise. Ergebnisse des Updates der WIFO-Industriebefragung vom Sommer 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(6), pages 461-470, June.
    2. Wifo, 2021. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 6/2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(6), June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

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