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Beeinflussen Politiker das Ergebnis von nationalen Steuerschätzungen?
[Do Politicians Influence the Results of National Tax Estimates?]

Author

Listed:
  • Beate Jochimsen

    (Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Recht Berlin)

  • Robert Lehmann

    (ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung In Deutschland sind die öffentlichen Kassen aktuell sehr gut gefüllt, was zu immer neuen Revisionen der Steuerschätzungen nach oben führt. Für die Haushaltsplanungen spielen diese Steuerschätzungen eine große Rolle. Die Autoren gehen der Hypothese nach, dass die Politik deshalb versucht sein könnte, die Steuerschätzung zu manipulieren, wobei von linken Regierungen eher angenommen wird, dass sie zu Überschätzungen neigen, um höhere Ausgaben zu rechtfertigen. Dies konnte in einer Untersuchung von 18 OECD-Ländern gestützt werden, während sich die Annahme, auch fragmentierte Regierungen könnten zu Überschätzungen neigen, nicht bestätigen ließ. Im Gegenteil: Fragmentierte Regierungen schätzen Steuereinnahmen eher zu niedrig ein. Zudem konnte kein opportunistisches Verhalten von Regierungen vor Wahlen festgestellt werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2018. "Beeinflussen Politiker das Ergebnis von nationalen Steuerschätzungen? [Do Politicians Influence the Results of National Tax Estimates?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 98(7), pages 489-493, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:98:y:2018:i:7:d:10.1007_s10273-018-2320-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-018-2320-9
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    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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