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Der deutsche Konjunkturzyklus: Vermessung und Zusammenhang mit Investitionen
[Assessing the German Business Cycle and the Role of Investment]

Author

Listed:
  • Till Strohsal

    (BMWi - Abteilung Wirtschaftspolitik)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Der typische deutsche Konjunkturzyklus hat eine Länge von etwa vier bis fünf Jahren. Er ist recht ausgeprägt und erklärt allein etwa 27 % der Schwankungen in der BIP-Wachstumsrate. 83 % der Konjunktur geht auf Schwingungen mit einer Länge von über zwei Jahren zurück, nur 17 % können durch kürzere Schwingungen erklärt werden. Die Entwicklung der BIP-Wachstumsrate ist Granger-kausal zu den Investitionen — nicht umgekehrt. Dieser Zusammenhang geht auf Investitionen in die Ausrüstung zurück — nicht auf Investitionen in Bauten. Dabei werden die Investitionen vor allem durch die Auslandsnachfrage (Exporte) und nicht durch die Inlandsnachfrage getrieben.

Suggested Citation

  • Till Strohsal, 2018. "Der deutsche Konjunkturzyklus: Vermessung und Zusammenhang mit Investitionen [Assessing the German Business Cycle and the Role of Investment]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 98(2), pages 125-128, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:98:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10273-018-2252-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-018-2252-4
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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