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Der Investitionsaufschwung blieb aus: das Prognosejahr 2015 im Rückblick
[The Upswing in Capital Formation Failed to Appear: The Forecast for 2015 in Retrospective]

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  • Roland Döhrn

    (RWI Essen)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Prognosen werden mehrfach revidiert – von den ersten vorwiegend theoriebasierten über spätere in zunehmenden Maße von den Daten bestimmten Erstellungen bis zur Veröffentlichung der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes. In dieser Zeit ändern sich nicht nur die nackten Zahlen, sondern auch die Vorstellungen über die augenblicklich vorherrschenden konjunkturellen Triebkräfte. Für das Jahr 2015 gibt der Autor einen Überblick, welche Wandlungen die Prognosen im Laufe der Zeit erfahren haben, und darüber, welche Faktoren schließlich zu Änderungen der Prognosen geführt haben. Dabei zeigt sich, dass die Prognostiker einige Überraschungen erlebten, dass sie aber grundsätzlich gar nicht so falsch lagen.

Suggested Citation

  • Roland Döhrn, 2016. "Der Investitionsaufschwung blieb aus: das Prognosejahr 2015 im Rückblick [The Upswing in Capital Formation Failed to Appear: The Forecast for 2015 in Retrospective]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 96(4), pages 253-257, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:96:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s10273-016-1966-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-016-1966-4
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    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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