Der Preis zusätzlichen Wachstums – lang- und kurzfristige Effekte staatlicher Investitionen

In the long run, all autonomous expenditures are zero. With this premise, the multiplier theory can be reduced to a well-known relationship between savings, investment and exports. If investment is enhanced by additional government expenditures, the best scenario implies a growing stock of capital. The corresponding increase in income can be assessed with the help of a production function. Only a tiny part of the increased income is gained by the government. A self-financing effect could eventually be reached after 32 years. But according to a more realistic scenario, the accumulation of capital would be terminated after 14 years because governmental investment crowd out private investment. Thus, the “costs” of additional growth for that period would be enduring increases in governmental expenditures which could never be paid back. Copyright ZBW and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015