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Langfristige fiskalische Erträge künftiger Zuwanderung nach Deutschland

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  • Holger Bonin

Abstract

The paper employs generational accounting to assess the long-term fiscal impact of future immigration to Germany. Using micro data on age-specific government revenue and expenditure, it demonstrates that the intertemporal government budget, given current fiscal parameters and no migration, is heavily imbalanced due to demographic ageing. Immigration may reduce the burden of the necessary fiscal policy changes on the incumbent population, both via an added revenue effect and an added tax payer effect. However, fiscal relief requires that future migrants are on average at least medium-skilled and hence better qualified than the current population of foreign nationals in Germany. This calls for selective migration policies with a strong labour market focus. Copyright ZBW and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Bonin, 2015. "Langfristige fiskalische Erträge künftiger Zuwanderung nach Deutschland," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 95(4), pages 262-268, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:95:y:2015:i:4:p:262-268
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-015-1816-9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Heinemann, Friedrich & Janeba, Eckhard & Todtenhaupt, Maximilian, 2022. "Incumbency and expectations of fiscal rule compliance: Evidence from surveys of German policy makers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Panu Poutvaara & Daniela Wech, 2015. "ifo Migrationsmonitor," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(23), pages 24-31, December.
    3. Hinte, Holger & Rinne, Ulf & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2015. "Flüchtlinge in Deutschland: Realismus statt Illusionen," IZA Standpunkte 83, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Tausch, Arno, 2015. "Europe’s Refugee Crisis. Zur aktuellen politischen Ökonomie von Migration, Asyl und Integration in Europa [Europe's Refugee Crisis. On the current political economy of migration, asylum and integra," MPRA Paper 67400, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Michele Battisti & Gabriel Felbermayr & Panu Poutvaara, 2015. "Einwanderung: Welchen Nutzen hat die einheimische Bevölkerung?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(18), September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    E62; E66; F22;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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