Erwartungen an die Weltklimakonferenz in Paris

While the Paris agreement is likely to be a political success, it is unclear if it will lay the foundation for a successful long-term climate policy. An efficient mitigation policy necessitates substantial transfers. Ensuring that the debate is focused on justice claims based on needs rather than on culpability is crucial for successful negotiations. Many economists advocate price instruments such as taxes or emission trading to control greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and, at the same time, predict that no climate agreement containing such policies will ever emerge. So far they have been proven right. Nevertheless, the COP21 in Paris opens the way for a new bottom-up approach. Voluntary promises by countries to reduce GHGs have already made considerable progress towards meeting the globally agreed two degree goal, although they are not sufficient to actually meet it. Additional effort beyond voluntary contributions will be needed to make sure that most of the fossil energy sources remain in the ground and not emitted into the atmosphere. Copyright ZBW and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015