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Gemeinschaftsdiagnose: Flüchtlingsmigration stellt Wirtschaftspolitik vor Herausforderungen

Author

Listed:
  • Roland Döhrn
  • Ferdinand Fichtner
  • Oliver Holtemöller
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

According to the Autumn 2015 Joint Forecast German GDP will grow by 1.8% in this year and in the next year also. Thus the business cycle upswing will continue to be moderate. Lower growth in the emerging markets will show a dampening effect on exports whereas private consumption will gain momentum, given a strong labor market and an increase in real wages. However, new workers are increasingly recruited from the non-active population and among immigrants, leaving unemployment more or less unchanged. In the next year, the huge current infl ow of refugees will increasingly infl uence the number of unemployed. For economic policy the challenge is to integrate refugees into the labour market as soon as possible. Copyright ZBW and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Roland Döhrn & Ferdinand Fichtner & Oliver Holtemöller & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2015. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose: Flüchtlingsmigration stellt Wirtschaftspolitik vor Herausforderungen," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 95(10), pages 696-700, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:95:y:2015:i:10:p:696-700
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-015-1889-5
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E27; E32; E37;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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