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Droht eine Immobilienpreisblase in Deutschland?

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Meulen
  • Martin Micheli

Abstract

Since 2009, real estate prices in Germany have been rising rapidly after a period of stagnation during the Great Recession. This raises the question of whether the recent price increases are fundamentally driven or rather an indication of a real estate bubble in Germany. To tackle this question, we take a look at several real estate demand-side indicators. As real estate bubbles sometimes form in certain sub-segments of the real estate market only, the authors also conduct a disaggregate analysis by looking at different real estate types in Germany’s most important metropolitan areas. In what follows, we investigate the relation of real estate prices and rents and test for explosive behaviour of the price-generating processes. Our findings suggest that the recent upswing in the German real estate market seems to be based on fundamental factors. Except for the sub-segment of flats in some of the metropolitan areas, there is no evidence for price increases being unsustainable. Copyright ZBW and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Meulen & Martin Micheli, 2013. "Droht eine Immobilienpreisblase in Deutschland?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 93(8), pages 539-544, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:93:y:2013:i:8:p:539-544
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-013-1562-9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Breidenbach Philipp & Schaffner Sandra, 2020. "Real estate data for Germany (RWI-GEO-RED)," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 401-416, September.
    2. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Michelsen, Claus & Ulbricht, Dirk, 2018. "Speculative price bubbles in urban housing markets," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 1957-1983.
    3. Ihley, Dorothee & Siebert-Meyerhoff, Andrea, 2016. "The evolution of immigrants' homeownership in Germany," CAWM Discussion Papers 92, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
    4. Norbert Hiller, 2015. "The relative importance of structural and locational effects on apartment price variations in a medium-sized German city," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 35(1), pages 73-102, February.
    5. repec:zbw:cawmdp:86 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Heinz Gebhardt & Tobias Kitlinksi & Martin Micheli & Simeon Vosen & Lina Zwick, 2013. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Binnennachfrage trägt Aufschwung," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 64, 09.
    7. Ihle Dorothee & Siebert-Meyerhoff Andrea, 2019. "The Evolution of Immigrants’ Homeownership in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(2), pages 155-201, April.
    8. Gröbel, Sören & Ihle, Dorothee, 2016. "Saving behavior and housing wealth: Evidence from German micro data," CAWM Discussion Papers 90, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
    9. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen & Dirk Ulbricht, 2015. "Is There a Bubble in the German Housing Market?," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 53, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen & Dirk Ulbricht, 2014. "Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1417, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Kitlinski, Tobias & Micheli, Martin & Vosen, Simeon & Zwick, Lina, 2013. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Binnennachfrage trägt Aufschwung," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 64(3), pages 41-103.
    12. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2015. "Speculative Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," ERSA conference papers ersa15p67, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    C22; R30; R32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

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