IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/weltar/v160y2024i2d10.1007_s10290-023-00500-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Be my guest: the effect of foreign policy visits to the USA on FDI

Author

Listed:
  • Antonis Adam

    (University of Ioannina)

  • Sofia Tsarsitalidou

    (University of Patras
    LSE Health, London School of Economics and Political Science)

Abstract

We examine whether a country leader’s diplomatic visit to the USA affects the Foreign Direct Investment inflow. The literature so far has found inconclusive results regarding diplomatic relations' effect on international flows. We use a dynamic Inverse Probability Weighting Regression Adjustment framework to examine this relationship and estimate the causal effect of foreign visits. Our results indicate that a visit to the US increases the country’s total FDI inflows by up to one percentage point per annum, with a cumulative effect reaching 2.5 percentage points six years after the visit. However, this is a short-run effect as it disappears in the subsequent years. Furthermore, our first-stage results shed light on the profile of the leaders that visit the US. Our findings are consistent with the view that foreign visits act as signals to investors regarding the country’s political risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonis Adam & Sofia Tsarsitalidou, 2024. "Be my guest: the effect of foreign policy visits to the USA on FDI," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(2), pages 455-480, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:160:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s10290-023-00500-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-023-00500-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10290-023-00500-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10290-023-00500-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philipp Harms & Heinrich W. Ursprung, 2002. "Do Civil and Political Repression Really Boost Foreign Direct Investments?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 651-663, October.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(590), pages 219-255, February.
    3. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Vicard, Vincent, 2009. "Foreign direct investment and bilateral investment treaties: An international political perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 372-386, September.
    4. Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2018. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 371-387, July.
    5. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654.
    6. Rodolphe Desbordes, 2010. "Global And Diplomatic Political Risks And Foreign Direct Investment," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 92-125, March.
    7. Dreher, Axel & Mikosch, Heiner & Voigt, Stefan, 2015. "Membership has its Privileges – The Effect of Membership in International Organizations on FDI," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 346-358.
    8. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521794497 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Dreher, Axel & Voigt, Stefan, 2011. "Does membership in international organizations increase governments' credibility? Testing the effects of delegating powers," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 326-348, September.
    10. Selwyn J. V. Moons & Peter A. G. Bergeijk, 2017. "Does Economic Diplomacy Work? A Meta-analysis of Its Impact on Trade and Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 336-368, February.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
    12. Ivan T. Kandilov & Mitch Renkow, 2020. "The Impacts Of The Usda Broadband Loan And Grant Programs: Moving Toward Estimating A Rate Of Return," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1129-1145, July.
    13. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2009. "Global horse trading: IMF loans for votes in the United Nations Security Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 742-757, October.
    14. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    15. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    16. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    17. Cukierman, Alex & Tommasi, Mariano, 1998. "When Does It Take a Nixon to Go to China?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 180-197, March.
    18. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2019. "Sovereigns going bust: Estimating the cost of default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-21.
    19. Joshua D. Angrist & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2011. "Causal Effects of Monetary Shocks: Semiparametric Conditional Independence Tests with a Multinomial Propensity Score," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 725-747, August.
    20. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    21. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    22. Lorenzo Caprio & Mara Faccio & John J. McConnell, 2013. "Sheltering Corporate Assets from Political Extraction," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 332-354, April.
    23. Espen Geelmuyden Rød & Carl Henrik Knutsen & Håvard Hegre, 2020. "The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 87-111, October.
    24. Lederman, Daniel & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Payton, Lucy, 2010. "Export promotion agencies: Do they work?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 257-265, March.
    25. François, Abel & Panel, Sophie & Weill, Laurent, 2020. "Educated dictators attract more foreign direct investment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 37-55.
    26. Tim Büthe & Helen V. Milner, 2008. "The Politics of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries: Increasing FDI through International Trade Agreements?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 741-762, October.
    27. Stergios Skaperdas, 2003. "Restraining the Genuine Homo Economicus: Why the Economy Cannot Be Divorced from Its Governance," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 135-162, July.
    28. Adam, Antonis & Filippaios, Fragkiskos, 2007. "Foreign direct investment and civil liberties: A new perspective," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1038-1052, December.
    29. Christian Volpe Martincus & Antoni Estevadeordal & Andrés Gallo & Jessica Luna, 2010. "Information Barriers, Export Promotion Institutions, and the Extensive Margin of Trade," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 39358, Inter-American Development Bank.
    30. Guido W. Imbens, 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Under Exogeneity: A Review," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 4-29, February.
    31. Heejung Bang & James M. Robins, 2005. "Doubly Robust Estimation in Missing Data and Causal Inference Models," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 962-973, December.
    32. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521583299 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Dynamic inconsistency, cooperation and the benevolent dissembling government," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 93-107, May.
    34. Schneider, Friedrich & Frey, Bruno S., 1985. "Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 161-175, February.
    35. Garriga, Ana Carolina & Phillips, Brian John, 2014. "Foreign Aid as a Signal to Investors: Predicting FDI in Post-Conflict Countries," MPRA Paper 88643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antonis Adam & Sofia Tsarsitalidou, 2023. "Serving two masters: the effect of state religion on fiscal capacity," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 194(1), pages 181-203, January.
    2. Jean Lacroix & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Khalid Sekkat, 2017. "Do democratic transitions attract foreign investors and how fast?," Working Papers CEB 17-006, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Nouha Bougharriou & Walid Benayed & Foued Badr Gabsi, 2021. "Under Which Condition Does the Democratization of the Arab World Improve FDI?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 224-248, June.
    4. Antonis Adam & Sofia Tsarsitalidou, 2019. "Do sanctions lead to a decline in civil liberties?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 180(3), pages 191-215, September.
    5. Antonis Adam & Thomas Moutos, 2023. "Do Public Sector Employment Reductions Promote Informality?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10614, CESifo.
    6. Francesca Caselli & Mr. Philippe Wingender, 2018. "Bunching at 3 Percent: The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 2018/182, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Zeqin Liu & Zongwu Cai & Ying Fang & Ming Lin, 2019. "Statistical Analysis and Evaluation of Macroeconomic Policies: A Selective Review," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201904, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2019.
    8. Caselli, Francesca & Wingender, Philippe, 2021. "Heterogeneous effects of fiscal rules: The Maastricht fiscal criterion and the counterfactual distribution of government deficits✰," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Zongwu Cai & Ying Fang & Ming Lin & Shengfang Tang, 2020. "Testing Unconfoundedness Assumption Using Auxiliary Variables," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202004, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2020.
    10. François, Abel & Panel, Sophie & Weill, Laurent, 2020. "Educated dictators attract more foreign direct investment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 37-55.
    11. Farrell, Max H., 2015. "Robust inference on average treatment effects with possibly more covariates than observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 1-23.
    12. Lacroix, Jean & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume & Sekkat, Khalid, 2021. "Democratic transitions can attract foreign direct investment: Effect, trajectories, and the role of political risk," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 340-357.
    13. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2023. "State-dependent effects of the unconventional monetary policy in stock markets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Ashesh Rambachan & Neil Shephard, 2019. "Econometric analysis of potential outcomes time series: instruments, shocks, linearity and the causal response function," Papers 1903.01637, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    15. repec:hok:dpaper:322 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Zhao, Jun, 2020. "Doubly robust difference-in-differences estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 101-122.
    17. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram-Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment in oil-abundant countries: The role of institutions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    18. Herradi, Mehdi El & Leroy, Aurélien, 2022. "The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    19. Abel FRANCOIS & Sophie PANEL & Laurent WEILL, 2018. "Are Some Dictators More Attractive to Foreign Investors?," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2018-05, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    20. Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2017. "Household credit in Asia-Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial systems and the real economy, volume 91, pages 129-144, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Dreher, Axel & Mikosch, Heiner & Voigt, Stefan, 2015. "Membership has its Privileges – The Effect of Membership in International Organizations on FDI," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 346-358.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI; Foreign visits; Inverse probability weighting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy
    • H8 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:160:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s10290-023-00500-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.