IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v39y2025i1d10.1007_s11269-024-03970-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explicit Stochastic Procedure for Developing Reservoir Storage-Yield-Reliability-Vulnerability Relationships

Author

Listed:
  • José Eduardo Santos Araújo

    (Federal University of Sergipe)

  • Alcigeimes B. Celeste

    (Federal University of Sergipe)

Abstract

In this study, refinements are introduced to the explicit stochastic Fletcher-Ponnambalam method applied to reservoir sizing, with a primary focus on the development of storage-yield-reliability-vulnerability (SYRV) relationships. Improvements to the original method include transitioning from annual to monthly analysis, providing insights into monthly reliabilities, probabilities of containment, deficit, spill, and statistical moments of storage. The model is further enhanced with estimates for monthly vulnerabilities, as well as first and second moments of deficit, spill and allocation, aspects previously unaddressed. To validate the model, historical natural flow data from the Sobradinho reservoir (Brazil) is utilized, and monthly simulations are conducted based on synthetic scenarios aligned with the Standard Operating Policy. The model’s performance is evaluated using metrics such as the error sum of squares and the mean squared error. Additionally, a residual sample (model minus simulation) is created to undergo parametric and non-parametric tests, confirming the adequacy of the model. The study also includes the development of SYR relationships and equations based on the model’s results.

Suggested Citation

  • José Eduardo Santos Araújo & Alcigeimes B. Celeste, 2025. "Explicit Stochastic Procedure for Developing Reservoir Storage-Yield-Reliability-Vulnerability Relationships," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(1), pages 245-270, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03970-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-03970-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-024-03970-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-024-03970-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03970-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.