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What Is the Potential of Integrating Phase Space Reconstruction with SVM-FFA Data-Intelligence Model? Application of Rainfall Forecasting over Regional Scale

Author

Listed:
  • Hai Tao

    (Baoji University of Arts and Sciences)

  • Sadeq Oleiwi Sulaiman

    (University of Anbar)

  • Zaher Mundher Yaseen

    (Ton Duc Thang University)

  • H. Asadi

    (University of Tabriz)

  • Sarita Gajbhiye Meshram

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

  • M. A. Ghorbani

    (University of Tabriz
    Near East University)

Abstract

Rainfall modeling is one of the major component process in the meteorological engineering. Hence, exploring an advance and reliable intelligent model for its forecasting is essential for water resources engineering. In this current research, novel integrative intelligence model coupled with phase space reconstruction is proposed to forecast monthly rainfall in Chhattisgarh State, India. The proposed model is a hybridization of support vector machine (SVM) model with firefly optimization algorithm (FFA). The modeling is undertaken based on three stages starting with configuring the delay time and embedding dimension using mutual information and false nearest neighbors to determine the input matrix of the forecasting model. In the second stage, the firefly optimizer is employed to tune the SVM model. Finally, the hybrid model is conducted to forecast the monthly time scale rainfall time series. Monthly time scale rainfall data for sixteen raingauge stations over a century (1901–2002) are utilized and tested. A validation of the capacity of the suggested model is carried out by comparing the accuracy results with classical SVM and hybrid SVM-FFA “without mutual information analysis” models. The three predictive models are trained using 75% of available data set and tested the remaining 25% dataset. The model’s results were statistically verified using mean absolute error and best-good-fitness measurements in addition to Taylor diagram visualization. In conclusion, the proposed model was significantly improved the forecasting accuracy of the modeling. Also, it was exhibited a very robust intelligent model that can be applied for the Indian regional zone for monthly rainfall forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Hai Tao & Sadeq Oleiwi Sulaiman & Zaher Mundher Yaseen & H. Asadi & Sarita Gajbhiye Meshram & M. A. Ghorbani, 2018. "What Is the Potential of Integrating Phase Space Reconstruction with SVM-FFA Data-Intelligence Model? Application of Rainfall Forecasting over Regional Scale," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(12), pages 3935-3959, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-018-2028-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2028-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Jamei, Mehdi & Karbasi, Masoud & Malik, Anurag & Jamei, Mozhdeh & Kisi, Ozgur & Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, 2022. "Long-term multi-step ahead forecasting of root zone soil moisture in different climates: Novel ensemble-based complementary data-intelligent paradigms," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    2. He, Li & Du, Yu & Yu, Menglong & Wen, Hao & Ma, Haochen & Xu, Ying, 2024. "A stochastic simulation-based method for predicting the carrying capacity of agricultural water resources," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    3. Neeraj Dhanraj Bokde & Zaher Mundher Yaseen & Gorm Bruun Andersen, 2020. "ForecastTB—An R Package as a Test-Bench for Time Series Forecasting—Application of Wind Speed and Solar Radiation Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-24, May.
    4. Sandeep Samantaray & Abinash Sahoo, 2024. "Prediction of flow discharge in Mahanadi River Basin, India, based on novel hybrid SVM approaches," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 18699-18723, July.
    5. Sarita Gajbhiye Meshram & Vijay P. Singh & Ozgur Kisi & Vahid Karimi & Chandrashekhar Meshram, 2020. "Application of Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machine and Multiple Model-ANN to Sediment Yield Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 4561-4575, December.

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