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A Grid-Based Approach to Water Scarcity Estimates for Eastern and Southern Africa

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  • J. Meigh
  • A. McKenzie
  • K. Sene

Abstract

A novel approach is taken to the problem of estimating global water scarcity, using a realistic and consistent procedure applied across many countries. Water demands, surface flows and groundwater availability are estimated on a gridded basis, and various water availability indices are derived comparing the resource with the projected demand. Surface flows are estimated using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model linking climate to runoff and, in the major river basins, the runoff estimates for individual grid cells are accumulated to give estimates for the total flows at all points of interest. Groundwater availability is derived from hydrogeological maps based on estimates of the potential yield that can be expected from a borehole and the likely maximum borehole density. Estimates of potential groundwater recharge derived from the surface water model are also taken into account. Water demands are based on current and projected population and livestock numbers, and information on irrigation schemes and industrial water use. Results are presented for the application of the model to a region covering the whole of eastern and southern Africa. The main scenario considered includes the combined impact of climate change, population growth and improved living standards to the year 2050. The results for this scenario show that water scarcity is likely to increase in many countries in the region, with particular problems in the countries around Lake Victoria and in the southernmost parts of the pilot region. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

Suggested Citation

  • J. Meigh & A. McKenzie & K. Sene, 1999. "A Grid-Based Approach to Water Scarcity Estimates for Eastern and Southern Africa," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(2), pages 85-115, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:13:y:1999:i:2:p:85-115
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1008025703712
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. K. Sene & F. Farquharson, 1998. "Sampling Errors for Water Resources Design: The Need for Improved Hydrometry in Developing Countries," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 12(2), pages 121-138, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rebecka Törnqvist & Jerker Jarsjö, 2012. "Water Savings Through Improved Irrigation Techniques: Basin-Scale Quantification in Semi-Arid Environments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(4), pages 949-962, March.
    2. Sonika Redhu & Pragati Jain, 2024. "Unveiling the nexus between water scarcity and socioeconomic development in the water-scarce countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 19557-19577, August.
    3. Caroline Sullivan & Jeremy Meigh, 2007. "Integration of the biophysical and social sciences using an indicator approach: Addressing water problems at different scales," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 111-128, January.
    4. Davy Vanham & Stefanie Millinger & Harald Pliessnig & Wolfgang Rauch, 2011. "Rasterised Water Demands: Methodology for Their Assessment and Possible Applications," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3301-3320, October.
    5. Animesh Gain & Yoshihide Wada, 2014. "Assessment of Future Water Scarcity at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales of the Brahmaputra River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 999-1012, March.
    6. Mohamed Hamouda & Mohamed Nour El-Din & Fawzia Moursy, 2009. "Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources Systems in the Eastern Nile Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(13), pages 2697-2725, October.
    7. Robyn Horan & Pawan S. Wable & Veena Srinivasan & Helen E. Baron & Virginie J. D. Keller & Kaushal K. Garg & Nathan Rickards & Mike Simpson & Helen A. Houghton-Carr & H. Gwyn Rees, 2021. "Modelling Small-Scale Storage Interventions in Semi-Arid India at the Basin Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-28, May.
    8. Saroj Koirala & Yiping Fang & Nirmal Mani Dahal & Chenjia Zhang & Bikram Pandey & Sabita Shrestha, 2020. "Application of Water Poverty Index (WPI) in Spatial Analysis of Water Stress in Koshi River Basin, Nepal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, January.
    9. F. Jorge Bornemann & David P. Rowell & Barbara Evans & Dan J. Lapworth & Kamazima Lwiza & David M.J. Macdonald & John H. Marsham & Kindie Tesfaye & Matthew J. Ascott & Celia Way, 2019. "Future changes and uncertainty in decision-relevant measures of East African climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 365-384, October.
    10. Isha Goel & Seema Sharma & Smita Kashiramka, 2020. "The Water Poverty Index: An application in the Indian context," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(3), pages 195-218, August.
    11. Jean de Dieu Nambajimana & Xiubin He & Ji Zhou & Meta Francis Justine & Jinlin Li & Dil Khurram & Richard Mind’je & Gratien Nsabimana, 2019. "Land Use Change Impacts on Water Erosion in Rwanda," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, December.
    12. Yves Hategekimana & Mona Allam & Qingyan Meng & Yueping Nie & Elhag Mohamed, 2020. "Quantification of Soil Losses along the Coastal Protected Areas in Kenya," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-16, May.
    13. Hatem Jemmali & Mohamed Salah Matoussi, 2012. "A Multidimensional Analysis of Water Poverty at A Local Scale- Application of Improved Water Poverty Index for Tunisia," Working Papers 730, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    14. Dai, Meng & Huang, Shengzhi & Huang, Qiang & Leng, Guoyong & Guo, Yi & Wang, Lu & Fang, Wei & Li, Pei & Zheng, Xudong, 2020. "Assessing agricultural drought risk and its dynamic evolution characteristics," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    15. Julie C. Padowski & Lorenzo Carrera & James W. Jawitz, 2016. "Overcoming Urban Water Insecurity with Infrastructure and Institutions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4913-4926, October.
    16. Showers, Kate B., 2002. "Water Scarcity and Urban Africa: An Overview of Urban-Rural Water Linkages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 621-648, April.
    17. Dongguo Shao & Xudong Li & Wenquan Gu, 2015. "A Method for Temporary Water Scarcity Analysis in Humid Region Under Droughts Condition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3823-3839, August.
    18. Fidele Karamage & Chi Zhang & Felix Ndayisaba & Hua Shao & Alphonse Kayiranga & Xia Fang & Lamek Nahayo & Enan Muhire Nyesheja & Guangjin Tian, 2016. "Extent of Cropland and Related Soil Erosion Risk in Rwanda," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-19, June.
    19. Sullivan, Caroline, 2002. "Calculating a Water Poverty Index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1195-1210, July.
    20. Fidele Karamage & Chi Zhang & Alphonse Kayiranga & Hua Shao & Xia Fang & Felix Ndayisaba & Lamek Nahayo & Christophe Mupenzi & Guangjin Tian, 2016. "USLE-Based Assessment of Soil Erosion by Water in the Nyabarongo River Catchment, Rwanda," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-16, August.

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