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The two-sided power distribution for the treatment of the uncertainty in PERT

Author

Listed:
  • José García Pérez

    (University of Almería)

  • Salvador Cruz Rambaud

    (University of Almería)

  • Lina B. García García

    (University of Granada)

Abstract

. The aim of this paper is to include the Two-Sided Power (TSP) distribution in the PERT methodology making use of the advantages that this four-parameter distribution offers. In order to be completely determined, a distribution of this type needs, the same as the beta distribution, a new datum apart from the three usual values a (pessimistic), m (most likely) and b (optimistic). To solve this question, when using the beta distribution in the PERT context, we are looking for the maximum similarity with the normal and so it is required that the distribution has the same variance as the normal or its same kurtosis, giving rise to the constant variance and mesokurtic families, respectively. Nevertheless, while this approach can be only applied to the beta distribution for some values in the range of the standardized mode, in the case of the TSP distribution this methodology leads always to a solution. A detailed analysis comparing the beta and TSP distribution based on their PERT means and variances is presented indicating better results for the second.

Suggested Citation

  • José García Pérez & Salvador Cruz Rambaud & Lina B. García García, 2005. "The two-sided power distribution for the treatment of the uncertainty in PERT," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 14(2), pages 209-222, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:14:y:2005:i:2:d:10.1007_s10260-005-0115-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-005-0115-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Doskocil, Radek, 2015. "Fuzzy Logic: An Instrument?for the Evaluation of Project Status || La lógica difusa: un instrumento para la evaluación del estado del proyecto," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 19(1), pages 5-23, June.

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