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Hierarchical space-time modelling of epidemic dynamics: an application to measles outbreaks

Author

Listed:
  • Monica Chiogna

    (Universitá di Padova)

  • Carlo Gaetan

    (Universitá di Padova)

Abstract

. How infectious diseases spread in space and time is an important question that has received considerable theoretical attention. There are, however, few empirical studies to support theoretical approaches, because data is scarce. In this paper we propose to model the epidemic spread of measles in the London boroughs between 1960 and 1970 by an extension of the Kriged Kalman filter (Mardia et al. , 1998) to count data. Results show the flexibility of our approach in describing complex spatio-temporal dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica Chiogna & Carlo Gaetan, 2004. "Hierarchical space-time modelling of epidemic dynamics: an application to measles outbreaks," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 13(1), pages 55-71, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:13:y:2004:i:1:d:10.1007_s10260-004-0085-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-004-0085-3
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