Problems of Forecasting the Sustainability of Russian Cities in Modern Conditions

— The paper analyzes the problems of predicting urban resistance to shocks. The methodological problems of forecasting are described: the vagueness and versatility of the concept of shock resistance, the unknown nature of the shock and the state of the system at the time of its onset, the complexity of cause-and-effect relationships in the system of urban economics and urban management, the unpredictability of the ability to adapt to shock, the human factor, the lack of consensus on the final goal urban shock resistance, lack and/or delay of data. In Russian conditions, these problems are compounded by the lack of up-to-date, high-quality information about the reaction to stress, about the most pressing problems that require immediate solutions. The author’s approach to predicting shock resistance was proposed and tested, including expert interviews with representatives of the city administration and their questionnaire survey. As the survey results showed, Russian cities have a fairly high adaptive capacity to stress, and one of the most important reasons for resilience is the human factor, the ability of the municipal administration to quickly respond to emerging problems.