IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sorede/v32y2021i2d10.1134_s1075700721020040.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation of Transit Transportation along the Northern Sea Route under Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • D. O. Eliseev

    (Russian New University
    Federal Research Center “Subtropical Scientific Center,” Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Yu. V. Naumova

    (Federal Research Center “Computer Science and Control“, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

— The article examines the problems and development prospects for the international transit of goods along the NSR. The existing restrictions on increasing freight traffic up to 80 million tons per year declared in program documents are identified. An option for its enhancement based on the domestic fleet of Arctic cargo ships is proposed. The article summarizes the main shortcomings of earlier studies assessing the transit capabilities of the NSR. A model for assessing the optimal number of ships for the transportation of goods is proposed taking into account climatic, physical-geographical, technological, and temporal constraints and risks. Within the framework of the model, the cost of goods transportation was estimated for implementing two scenarios of transit traffic.

Suggested Citation

  • D. O. Eliseev & Yu. V. Naumova, 2021. "Simulation of Transit Transportation along the Northern Sea Route under Climate Change," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 160-168, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:32:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1134_s1075700721020040
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700721020040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1134/S1075700721020040
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1134/S1075700721020040?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hua Xu & Dong Yang & Jinxian Weng, 2018. "Economic feasibility of an NSR/SCR-combined container service on the Asia-Europe lane: a new approach dynamically considering sea ice extent," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 514-529, May.
    2. Masahiko Furuichi & Natsuhiko Otsuka, 2018. "Examining quick delivery at an affordable cost by the NSR/SCR-combined shipping in the age of Mega-ships," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1057-1077, November.
    3. Shengda Zhu & Xiaowen Fu & Adolf K.Y. Ng & Meifeng Luo & Ying-En Ge, 2018. "The environmental costs and economic implications of container shipping on the Northern Sea Route," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 456-477, May.
    4. Verny, Jerome & Grigentin, Christophe, 2009. "Container shipping on the Northern Sea Route," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 107-117, November.
    5. Zhang, Yiru & Meng, Qiang & Ng, Szu Hui, 2016. "Shipping efficiency comparison between Northern Sea Route and the conventional Asia-Europe shipping route via Suez Canal," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 241-249.
    6. Jérôme Verny & Christophe Grigentin, 2009. "Container shipping on the Northern Sea Route," Post-Print hal-00568193, HAL.
    7. Liu, Miaojia & Kronbak, Jacob, 2010. "The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative route between Asia and Europe," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 434-444.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sibul, Gleb & Jin, Jian Gang, 2021. "Evaluating the feasibility of combined use of the Northern Sea Route and the Suez Canal Route considering ice parameters," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 350-369.
    2. Xu, Hua & Yin, Zhifang, 2021. "The optimal icebreaking tariffs and the economic performance of tramp shipping on the Northern Sea Route," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 76-97.
    3. Liu, ChengCheng & Lian, Feng & Yang, Zhongzhen, 2021. "Comparing the minimal costs of Arctic container shipping between China and Europe: A network schemes perspective," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Koçak, Saim Turgut & Yercan, Funda, 2021. "Comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of Arctic and international shipping routes: A Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 147-164.
    5. Dai, Lei & Jing, Danyue & Hu, Hao & Wang, Zhaojing, 2021. "An environmental and techno-economic analysis of transporting LNG via Arctic route," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 56-71.
    6. Pierre Cariou & Ali Cheaitou & Olivier Faury & Sadeque Hamdan, 2021. "The feasibility of Arctic container shipping: the economic and environmental impacts of ice thickness," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(4), pages 615-631, December.
    7. Theocharis, Dimitrios & Pettit, Stephen & Rodrigues, Vasco Sanchez & Haider, Jane, 2018. "Arctic shipping: A systematic literature review of comparative studies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-128.
    8. Theocharis, Dimitrios & Rodrigues, Vasco Sanchez & Pettit, Stephen & Haider, Jane, 2019. "Feasibility of the Northern Sea Route: The role of distance, fuel prices, ice breaking fees and ship size for the product tanker market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 111-135.
    9. Lin, Dung-Ying & Chang, Yu-Ting, 2018. "Ship routing and freight assignment problem for liner shipping: Application to the Northern Sea Route planning problem," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 47-70.
    10. Lasserre, Frédéric & Pelletier, Sébastien, 2011. "Polar super seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: an analysis of shipowners’ intentions," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1465-1473.
    11. Junseung Kim & Kyungku Kim & Kum Fai Yuen & Keun-Sik Park, 2020. "Cost and Scenario Analysis of Intermodal Transportation Routes from Korea to the USA: After the Panama Canal Expansion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-20, August.
    12. Theocharis, Dimitrios & Rodrigues, Vasco Sanchez & Pettit, Stephen & Haider, Jane, 2021. "Feasibility of the Northern Sea Route for seasonal transit navigation: The role of ship speed on ice and alternative fuel types for the oil product tanker market," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 259-283.
    13. Eddy Bekkers & Joseph F. Francois & Hugo Rojas†Romagosa, 2018. "Melting Ice Caps and the Economic Impact of Opening the Northern Sea Route," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 1095-1127, May.
    14. Yip, Tsz Leung & Wong, Mei Chi, 2015. "The Nicaragua Canal: scenarios of its future roles," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    15. Theo Notteboom & Hercules Haralambides & Kevin Cullinane, 2024. "The Red Sea Crisis: ramifications for vessel operations, shipping networks, and maritime supply chains," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 26(1), pages 1-20, March.
    16. Eddy Bekkers & Joseph F. Francois & Hugo Rojas†Romagosa, 2018. "Melting Ice Caps and the Economic Impact of Opening the Northern Sea Route," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 1095-1127, May.
    17. Kenneth Button & Tomaž Kramberger & Tea Vizinger & Marko Intihar, 2017. "Economic implications for Adriatic seaport regions of further opening of the Northern Sea Route," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(1), pages 52-67, March.
    18. Chien-Yun Yuan & Cheng-Hsien Hsieh & Dong-Taur Su, 2020. "Effects of new shipping routes on the operational resilience of container lines: potential impacts of the Arctic Sea Route and the Kra Canal on the Europe-Far East seaborne trades," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 22(2), pages 308-325, June.
    19. Jingmiao Zhou & Kjetil Fagerholt & Yongjia Liu & Yuzhe Zhao, 2023. "Profitability prospects for container roll-on/roll-off shipping on the Northern Sea Route (NSR)," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 25(4), pages 778-816, December.
    20. César Ducruet, 2016. "The polarization of global container flows by interoceanic canals: geographic coverage and network vulnerability," Post-Print halshs-00749639, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:32:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1134_s1075700721020040. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.