The Shadow of the Financial Crisis: Socio-Economic and Welfare Policy Development and Fear of Crime in Europe. A Random Effects Within-Between Model Analysis of the European Social Survey, 2002–2018

Previous cross-sectional research has found large cross-country differences in crime-related feelings of insecurity associated not with crime rates but with welfare state policies reflecting that fear of crime serves as an expression of generalized social insecurities. The financial crisis plunged European societies into a period of severe socio-economic insecurities. Against this backdrop, I use hybrid multilevel models to test hypotheses if changes in socio-economic conditions and social policies – in particular following the 2008 financial crisis – have affected feelings of insecurity in 27 European countries, using nine rounds of the European Social Survey. Most indicators except the homicide rate did not show significant effects on fear of crime in the longitudinal dimension. The consequences of the financial crisis for people’s well-being did not extend to fear of crime. Social expenditures in-kind for families and children showed the strongest association with fear of crime cross-sectionally but may lack the necessary country-level variation over time to produce significant effects. Mirroring research on generalized trust, fear of crime seems relatively stable over time and deeply associated with welfare state institutions.