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Nonlinear ARDL analysis of economic growth, nuclear energy, and innovation's asymmetric effects on Finland's load capacity factor

Author

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  • Irina Georgescu

    (Bucharest University of Economics)

  • Jani Kinnunen

    (Åbo Akademi University)

Abstract

Finland's energy system relies heavily on nuclear power, achieving one of the highest load capacity factors (LCF) globally. This study examines the long- and short-run dynamics between Finland's LCF and the economic variables—gross domestic product (GDP), nuclear power generation (NUK), and patent applications (PA)—using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model for the period 1990–2022. The results indicate that positive changes in GDP significantly reduce LCF in the long run, while negative GDP changes have no substantial effect. Nuclear power generation shows strong asymmetric effects, with positive changes increasing LCF and negative changes causing substantial reductions. Patent applications exhibit nuanced impacts, with positive changes decreasing LCF and negative changes showing marginal positive effects. In the short run, GDP and NUK exhibit mixed asymmetric effects, while patent applications initially reduce LCF before contributing to delayed improvements. These findings emphasize the critical role of nuclear energy in maintaining operational efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Irina Georgescu & Jani Kinnunen, 2025. "Nonlinear ARDL analysis of economic growth, nuclear energy, and innovation's asymmetric effects on Finland's load capacity factor," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 1-26, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:5:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s43546-025-00808-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-025-00808-9
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    Keywords

    NARDL; Nuclear energy; Patent applications; Load capacity factor;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth

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