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Solvenztest zur Ausschüttungsbemessung — Berücksichtigung unsicherer Zukunftserwartungen

Author

Listed:
  • Bernhard Pellens

    (Lehrstuhls für Internationale Unternehmensrechnung an der Ruhr-Universität Bochum)

  • Nils Crasselt
  • Thorsten Sellhorn

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Als Alternative zum traditionellen deutschen System gläubigerschützender Höchstausschüttungsregeln ist jüngst ein finanzplanbasierter Solvenztest vorgeschlagen worden. Über dessen genaue Ausgestaltung existieren bisher jedoch nur vage Vorstellungen. Insbesondere ist die Unsicherheit über die zukünftigen Cashflows — und damit über die Zahlungsfähigkeit des Schuldnerunternehmens — bislang nicht explizit beachtet worden. Der vorliegende Beitrag zeigt auf, wie ein finanzplanbasierter Solvenztest unter expliziter Berücksichtigung unsicherer Zukunftserwartungen die Gläubiger vor Ausschüttungen an die Eigenkapitalgeber schützen kann, die zu unangemessenen Erhöhungen des Insolvenzrisikos führen. Zu diesem Zweck werden die bekannten Prognosetechniken der Szenario- und Sensitivitätsanalyse sowie der Risikosimulation hinsichtlich ihrer Eignung im Rahmen einer gläubigerschützenden Solvenzprüfung kritisch gewürdigt.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernhard Pellens & Nils Crasselt & Thorsten Sellhorn, 2007. "Solvenztest zur Ausschüttungsbemessung — Berücksichtigung unsicherer Zukunftserwartungen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 264-283, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:59:y:2007:i:2:d:10.1007_bf03371697
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03371697
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    Keywords

    K22; M41; M44; M47; G34; G35;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K22 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Business and Securities Law
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy

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