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Inference in a multivariate generalized mean-reverting process with a change-point

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  • Sévérien Nkurunziza

    (University of Windsor)

  • Lei Shen

    (University of Windsor)

Abstract

In this paper, we study inference problem about the drift parameter matrix in multivariate generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes with an unknown change-point. In particular, we consider the case where the parameter matrix may satisfy some restrictions. Thus, we generalize in five ways some recent findings about univariate generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. First, the target parameter is a matrix and we derive a sufficient condition for the existence of the unrestricted estimator (UE) and the restricted estimator (RE). Second, we establish the joint asymptotic normality of the UE and the RE under a collection of local alternatives. Third, we construct a test for testing the uncertain restriction. The proposed test is also useful for testing the absence of the change-point. Fourth, we derive the asymptotic power of the proposed test and we prove that it is consistent. Fifth, we propose the shrinkage estimators (SEs) and we prove that SEs dominate the UE. Finally, we conduct some simulation studies which corroborate our theoretical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Sévérien Nkurunziza & Lei Shen, 2020. "Inference in a multivariate generalized mean-reverting process with a change-point," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 199-226, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sistpr:v:23:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11203-019-09204-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11203-019-09204-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nkurunziza, Sévérien & Chen, Fuqi, 2013. "On extension of some identities for the bias and risk functions in elliptically contoured distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 190-201.
    2. Fuqi Chen & Rogemar Mamon & Sévérien Nkurunziza, 2018. "Inference for a change-point problem under a generalised Ornstein–Uhlenbeck setting," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 70(4), pages 807-853, August.
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    5. Sévérien Nkurunziza & Pei Patrick Zhang, 2018. "Estimation and testing in generalized mean-reverting processes with change-point," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 191-215, April.
    6. Herold Dehling & Brice Franke & Thomas Kott & Reg Kulperger, 2014. "Change point testing for the drift parameters of a periodic mean reversion process," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-18, April.
    7. Herold Dehling & Brice Franke & Thomas Kott, 2010. "Drift estimation for a periodic mean reversion process," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 175-192, October.
    8. Sévérien Nkurunziza & S. Ejaz Ahmed, 2010. "Shrinkage drift parameter estimation for multi‐factor Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(2), pages 103-124, March.
    9. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
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    1. Sévérien Nkurunziza, 2023. "Estimation and Testing in Multivariate Generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes with Change-Points," Sankhya A: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(1), pages 351-400, February.

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