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Can scientific impact be judged prospectively? A bibliometric test of Simonton"s model of creative productivity

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  • John D. Lee

    (University of Iowa)

  • Kim J. Vicente

    (University of Iowa)

  • Andrea Cassano

    (University of Iowa)

  • Anna Shearer

    (University of Iowa)

Abstract

Simonton"s (1997) model of creative productivity, based on a blind variation-selection process, predicts scientific impact can only be evaluated retrospectively, after recognition has been achieved. We test this hypothesis using bibliometric data from the Human Factors journal, which gives an award for the best paper published each year. If Simonton"s model is correct, award winning papers would not be cited much more frequently than non-award winning papers, showing that scientific success cannot be judged prospectively. The results generally confirm Simonton"s model. Receipt of the award increases the citation rate of articles, but accounts for only 0.8% to 1.2% of the variance in the citation rate. Consistent with Simonton"s model, the influence of the award on citation rate may reflect a selection process of an elite group of reviewers who are representative of the larger peer group that eventually determines the citation rate of the article. Consistent with Simonton"s model, author productivity accounts for far more variance in the authors" total citation rate (58.9%) and in the citation rate of the authors" most cited article (12.6%) than does award receipt.

Suggested Citation

  • John D. Lee & Kim J. Vicente & Andrea Cassano & Anna Shearer, 2003. "Can scientific impact be judged prospectively? A bibliometric test of Simonton"s model of creative productivity," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 56(2), pages 223-232, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:56:y:2003:i:2:d:10.1023_a:1021967111530
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1021967111530
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    Cited by:

    1. Omar Mubin & Dhaval Tejlavwala & Mudassar Arsalan & Muneeb Ahmad & Simeon Simoff, 2018. "An assessment into the characteristics of award winning papers at CHI," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(2), pages 1181-1201, August.
    2. Louis Mesnard, 2010. "On Hochberg et al.’s “The tragedy of the reviewer commons”," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 84(3), pages 903-917, September.
    3. Nick Haslam & Lauren Ban & Leah Kaufmann & Stephen Loughnan & Kim Peters & Jennifer Whelan & Sam Wilson, 2008. "What makes an article influential? Predicting impact in social and personality psychology," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 76(1), pages 169-185, July.

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