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Scientific production: A statistical analysis of authors in mathematical logic

Author

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  • John C. Huber

    (Institute for Invention and Innovation)

  • Roland Wagner-Döbler

    (Augsburg University)

Abstract

We show that scientific production can be described by two variables: rate of production (rate of publications) and career duration. For mathematical logicians, we show that the time pattern of production is random and Poisson distributed, contrary to the theory of cumulative advantage. We show that the exponential distribution provides excellent goodness-of-fit to rate of production and a reasonable fit to career duration. The good fits to these distributions can be explained naturally from the statistics of exceedances. Thus, more powerful statistical tests and a better theoretical foundation is obtained for rate of production and career duration than has been the case for Lotka's Law.

Suggested Citation

  • John C. Huber & Roland Wagner-Döbler, 2001. "Scientific production: A statistical analysis of authors in mathematical logic," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 50(2), pages 323-337, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:50:y:2001:i:2:d:10.1023_a:1010581925357
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1010581925357
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. C. Huber, 1999. "Inventive productivity and the statistics of exceedances," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 45(1), pages 33-53, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ronald Rousseau, 2002. "Lack of standardisation in informetric research. Comments on “Power laws of research output. Evidence for journals of economics” by Matthias Sutter and Martin G. Kocher," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 55(2), pages 317-327, August.
    2. John C. Huber & Roland Wagner-Döbler, 2001. "Scientific production: A statistical analysis of authors in physics, 1800-1900," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 50(3), pages 437-453, March.
    3. Boris Forthmann & Philipp Doebler, 2021. "Reliability of researcher capacity estimates and count data dispersion: a comparison of Poisson, negative binomial, and Conway-Maxwell-Poisson models," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(4), pages 3337-3354, April.

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    1. John C. Huber & Roland Wagner-Döbler, 2001. "Scientific production: A statistical analysis of authors in physics, 1800-1900," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 50(3), pages 437-453, March.
    2. Ronald Rousseau, 2002. "Lack of standardisation in informetric research. Comments on “Power laws of research output. Evidence for journals of economics” by Matthias Sutter and Martin G. Kocher," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 55(2), pages 317-327, August.

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