The causal effect of the global crisis on open science research impact: a bibliometric causal analysis

This research aims to assess the causal effects of the global crisis, namely the COVID-19 pandemic, on the dissemination of research in open science by examining changes in research impact using field-normalized measures. This is done by conceptualizing the pandemic-related changes as a coercive force that accelerated the adoption of open science practices, thus improving their recognition in different scientific disciplines. Using a Causal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (C-ARIMA) model, the study contrasts counterfactual scenarios to evaluate the potential impact of research in the absence of the pandemic against what was empirically observed. The pandemic considerably increased the FWCI of open science research, reaching a peak in February 2022. The overall effect suggests continued recognition of open science after the pandemic. The average monthly increase in FWCI was 0.335 above the expected growth, with a relative effect ranging from 15 to 23%. The pandemic hastened the influence of open science, with fields like social science, computer science, medicine, and engineering experiencing significant unexpected changes, while business management and accounting, or arts and humanities do not noted a significant effect. Pandemic restrictions and an increased need for transparency were likely major catalysts to improve the visibility and impact of open science in academia.