IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/scient/v126y2021i7d10.1007_s11192-021-03999-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting future technological convergence patterns based on machine learning using link prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Joon Hyung Cho

    (Yonsei University)

  • Jungpyo Lee

    (Yonsei University)

  • So Young Sohn

    (Yonsei University)

Abstract

Technological convergence among different industries is an important source of innovation and economic growth. In this study, we propose a new framework for predicting patterns of technological convergence in two different industries. We first construct an inter-process communication co-occurrence network based on association rule mining. We then use a machine learning approach with various link prediction indices to predict future technological convergence patterns. Next, we use latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) topic modeling to identify the keywords associated with technologies that are predicted to converge. We apply our proposed framework to a dataset of patents from the United States Patent and Trademark Office from 2012 to 2014 in the fields of chemical engineering and environmental technology. The empirical analysis results show that the prediction over a 4-year time interval using the random forest model achieves the highest performance. Moreover, the LDA topic modeling results indicate that the keywords “membrane,” “air,” “separation,” “catalyst,” “gas,” “exhaust,” and “particle” are descriptions of technologies that are likely to converge. This study is expected to contribute to technological and economic growth by predicting new technological fields that are likely to emerge in the future, and hence the directions that firms focusing on technological advancement should prepare for.

Suggested Citation

  • Joon Hyung Cho & Jungpyo Lee & So Young Sohn, 2021. "Predicting future technological convergence patterns based on machine learning using link prediction," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(7), pages 5413-5429, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:126:y:2021:i:7:d:10.1007_s11192-021-03999-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-021-03999-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11192-021-03999-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11192-021-03999-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin, Ben R. & Nightingale, Paul & Yegros-Yegros, Alfredo, 2012. "Science and technology studies: Exploring the knowledge base," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1182-1204.
    2. Sherkat, Ehsan & Rahgozar, Maseud & Asadpour, Masoud, 2015. "Structural link prediction based on ant colony approach in social networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 80-94.
    3. Dolata, Ulrich, 2009. "Technological innovations and sectoral change: Transformative capacity, adaptability, patterns of change: An analytical framework," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1066-1076, July.
    4. William P. Jones & George W. Furnas, 1987. "Pictures of relevance: A geometric analysis of similarity measures," Journal of the American Society for Information Science, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 38(6), pages 420-442, November.
    5. Jeeeun Kim & Sungjoo Lee, 2017. "Forecasting and identifying multi-technology convergence based on patent data: the case of IT and BT industries in 2020," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(1), pages 47-65, April.
    6. Andrew Rodriguez & Byunghoon Kim & Mehmet Turkoz & Jae-Min Lee & Byoung-Youl Coh & Myong K. Jeong, 2015. "New multi-stage similarity measure for calculation of pairwise patent similarity in a patent citation network," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 103(2), pages 565-581, May.
    7. Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
    8. Fredrik Hacklin & Martin W. Wallin, 2013. "Convergence and interdisciplinarity in innovation management: a review, critique, and future directions," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7-8), pages 774-788, May.
    9. du Jardin, Philippe & Séverin, Eric, 2011. "Predicting corporate bankruptcy using a self-organizing map: An empirical study to improve the forecasting horizon of a financial failure model," MPRA Paper 44262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Tao Zhou & Linyuan Lü & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2009. "Predicting missing links via local information," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 623-630, October.
    11. David Liben‐Nowell & Jon Kleinberg, 2007. "The link‐prediction problem for social networks," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 58(7), pages 1019-1031, May.
    12. Euiseok Kim & Yongrae Cho & Wonjoon Kim, 2014. "Dynamic patterns of technological convergence in printed electronics technologies: patent citation network," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 98(2), pages 975-998, February.
    13. Hu, Rui & Skea, Jim & Hannon, Matthew J., 2018. "Measuring the energy innovation process: An indicator framework and a case study of wind energy in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 227-244.
    14. Seongkyoon Jeong & Jong-Chan Kim & Jae Young Choi, 2015. "Technology convergence: What developmental stage are we in?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 104(3), pages 841-871, September.
    15. Tommaso Antonucci & Mario Pianta, 2002. "Employment Effects of Product and Process Innovation in Europe," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 295-307.
    16. Iwai, Katsuhito, 2000. "A contribution to the evolutionary theory of innovation, imitation and growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 167-198, October.
    17. Baruffaldi, Stefano H. & Simeth, Markus, 2020. "Patents and knowledge diffusion: The effect of early disclosure," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(4).
    18. Lee, Won Sang & Han, Eun Jin & Sohn, So Young, 2015. "Predicting the pattern of technology convergence using big-data technology on large-scale triadic patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 317-329.
    19. Leo Katz, 1953. "A new status index derived from sociometric analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 18(1), pages 39-43, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Park, Mingyu & Geum, Youngjung, 2022. "Two-stage technology opportunity discovery for firm-level decision making: GCN-based link-prediction approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    2. Seo, Wonchul & Afifuddin, Mokh, 2024. "Developing a supervised learning model for anticipating potential technology convergence between technology topics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Wenjing Zhu & Bohong Ma & Lele Kang, 2022. "Technology convergence among various technical fields: improvement of entropy estimation in patent analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(12), pages 7731-7750, December.
    4. Li Yao & He Ni, 2023. "Prediction of patent grant and interpreting the key determinants: an application of interpretable machine learning approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(9), pages 4933-4969, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seo, Wonchul & Afifuddin, Mokh, 2024. "Developing a supervised learning model for anticipating potential technology convergence between technology topics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    2. Kim, Tae San & Sohn, So Young, 2020. "Machine-learning-based deep semantic analysis approach for forecasting new technology convergence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Sajad Ashouri & Anne-Laure Mention & Kosmas X. Smyrnios, 2021. "Anticipation and analysis of industry convergence using patent-level indicators," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(7), pages 5727-5758, July.
    4. Park, Mingyu & Geum, Youngjung, 2022. "Two-stage technology opportunity discovery for firm-level decision making: GCN-based link-prediction approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    5. Zhao, Shengchao & Zeng, Deming & Li, Jian & Feng, Ke & Wang, Yao, 2023. "Quantity or quality: The roles of technology and science convergence on firm innovation performance," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Ying Tang & Xuming Lou & Zifeng Chen & Chengjin Zhang, 2020. "A Study on Dynamic Patterns of Technology Convergence with IPC Co-Occurrence-Based Analysis: The Case of 3D Printing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-26, March.
    7. Qian Xu & Yabin Yu & Xiao Yu, 2022. "Analysis of the Technological Convergence in Smart Textiles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-13, October.
    8. Dejing Kong & Jianzhong Yang & Lingfeng Li, 2020. "Early identification of technological convergence in numerical control machine tool: a deep learning approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(3), pages 1983-2009, December.
    9. Lee, Yan-Li & Zhou, Tao, 2021. "Collaborative filtering approach to link prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 578(C).
    10. Kai Yang & Yuan Liu & Zijuan Zhao & Xingxing Zhou & Peijin Ding, 2023. "Graph attention network via node similarity for link prediction," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 96(3), pages 1-10, March.
    11. Mungo, Luca & Lafond, François & Astudillo-Estévez, Pablo & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2023. "Reconstructing production networks using machine learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    12. Yu, Jiating & Wu, Ling-Yun, 2022. "Multiple Order Local Information model for link prediction in complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    13. Kim, Yong Jin & Lee, Duk Hee, 2020. "Technology convergence networks for flexible display application: A comparative analysis of latecomers and leaders," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    14. Juite Wang & Tzu-Yen Hsu, 2023. "Early discovery of emerging multi-technology convergence for analyzing technology opportunities from patent data: the case of smart health," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(8), pages 4167-4196, August.
    15. Bütün, Ertan & Kaya, Mehmet, 2019. "A pattern based supervised link prediction in directed complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 1136-1145.
    16. Zhou, Yuan & Dong, Fang & Kong, Dejing & Liu, Yufei, 2019. "Unfolding the convergence process of scientific knowledge for the early identification of emerging technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 205-220.
    17. Najari, Shaghayegh & Salehi, Mostafa & Ranjbar, Vahid & Jalili, Mahdi, 2019. "Link prediction in multiplex networks based on interlayer similarity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    18. Sun, Bing & Yang, Xueting & Zhong, Shen & Tian, Shengnan & Liang, Tian, 2024. "How do technology convergence and expansibility affect information technology diffusion? Evidence from the internet of things technology in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    19. Zhu, Chen & Motohashi, Kazuyuki, 2022. "Identifying the technology convergence using patent text information: A graph convolutional networks (GCN)-based approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    20. Chunning Wang & Fengqin Tang & Xuejing Zhao, 2023. "LPGRI: A Global Relevance-Based Link Prediction Approach for Multiplex Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-15, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:126:y:2021:i:7:d:10.1007_s11192-021-03999-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.