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NHST is still logically flawed

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  • Jesper W. Schneider

    (Aarhus University)

Abstract

In this elaborate response to Wu (in Scientometrics, 2018), I maintain that null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is logically flawed. Wu (2018) disagrees with this claim presented in Schneider (in Scientometrics 102(1):411–432, 2015). In this response, I examine the claim in more depth and demonstrate that since NHST is based on one conditional probability alone and framed in a probabilistic modus tollens framework of reasoning, it is by definition logically invalid. I also argue that disregarding this logically fallacy, as most researchers do, and treating the p value as a heuristic value for dichotomous decisions against the null hypothesis, is a risky business that often leads to false-positive claims.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesper W. Schneider, 2018. "NHST is still logically flawed," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(1), pages 627-635, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:115:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-018-2655-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-018-2655-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John P A Ioannidis, 2005. "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(8), pages 1-1, August.
    2. Sellke T. & Bayarri M. J. & Berger J. O., 2001. "Calibration of rho Values for Testing Precise Null Hypotheses," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 55, pages 62-71, February.
    3. John P. A. Ioannidis & T. D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2017. "The Power of Bias in Economics Research," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 236-265, October.
    4. Jesper W. Schneider, 2015. "Null hypothesis significance tests. A mix-up of two different theories: the basis for widespread confusion and numerous misinterpretations," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 102(1), pages 411-432, January.
    5. Jinshan Wu, 2018. "Is there an intrinsic logical error in null hypothesis significance tests? Commentary on: “Null hypothesis significance tests. A mix-up of two different theories: the basis for widespread confusion an," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(1), pages 621-625, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boris Forthmann & Mark A. Runco, 2020. "An Empirical Test of the Inter-Relationships between Various Bibliometric Creative Scholarship Indicators," Publications, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Jesper W. Schneider, 2018. "Response to commentary on “Is NHST logically flawed”," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(3), pages 2193-2194, September.
    3. Alexandre Galvão Patriota, 2018. "Is NHST logically flawed? Commentary on: “NHST is still logically flawed”," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(3), pages 2189-2191, September.
    4. Engsted, Tom & Schneider, Jesper W., 2023. "Non-Experimental Data, Hypothesis Testing, and the Likelihood Principle: A Social Science Perspective," SocArXiv nztk8, Center for Open Science.

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