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The predictive power of investment and accruals

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Lewellen

    (Dartmouth College)

  • Robert J. Resutek

    (University of Georgia)

Abstract

We test whether investment explains the accrual anomaly by splitting total accruals into investment-related and “nontransaction” accruals, items such as depreciation and asset write-downs that do not represent new investment expenditures. The two types of accruals have very different predictive power for firm performance, not just for future earnings but also for future cash flow and stock returns. Most importantly, nontransaction accruals have the strongest negative predictive slopes for earnings and stock returns, contrary to the predictions of the investment hypothesis. A long-short portfolio based on nontransaction accruals has a significant average return of 0.71 % monthly from 1972 to 2010 and remains profitable at the end of the sample when returns on other accrual strategies decline. Our results suggest that nontransaction accruals are the least reliable component of accruals and show that a significant portion of the accrual anomaly cannot be explained by investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Lewellen & Robert J. Resutek, 2016. "The predictive power of investment and accruals," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1046-1080, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:21:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s11142-016-9369-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11142-016-9369-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Prodosh Simlai, 2021. "Accrual mispricing, value-at-risk, and expected stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1487-1517, November.
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    3. Gray, Philip & Liao, Iris Siyu & Strydom, Maria, 2018. "The profitability of trading NOA and accruals: One effect or two?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 211-224.
    4. Chad R. Larson & Richard Sloan & Jenny Zha Giedt, 2018. "Defining, measuring, and modeling accruals: a guide for researchers," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 827-871, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings persistence; Accruals; Investment; Stock returns; Anomalies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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