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Errors and questionable judgments in analysts’ DCF models

Author

Listed:
  • Jeremiah Green

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • John R. M. Hand

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

  • X. Frank Zhang

    (Yale School of Management)

Abstract

We investigate the number of and reasons for errors and questionable judgments that sell-side equity analysts make in constructing and executing discounted cash flow (DCF) equity valuation models. For a sample of 120 DCF models detailed in reports issued by U.S. brokers in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that analysts make a median of three theory-related and/or execution errors and four questionable economic judgments per DCF. Recalculating analysts’ DCFs after correcting for major errors changes analysts’ mean valuations and target prices by between −2 and 14 % per error. Based on face-to-face interviews with analysts and those who oversee them, we conclude that analysts’ DCF modeling behavior is semi-sophisticated in the sense that analysts genuinely make mistakes regarding certain aspects of correctly valuing equity but also respond rationally to the incentives they face, particularly the reality that they are not directly compensated for being textbook DCF correct.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremiah Green & John R. M. Hand & X. Frank Zhang, 2016. "Errors and questionable judgments in analysts’ DCF models," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 596-632, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:21:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11142-016-9352-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11142-016-9352-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Husák, 2022. "Do Damodaran's Multiples Value a Company Accurately? Evidence from Germany," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(3), pages 5-21.
    2. Syed Babar Ali & Manzoor A.Khalidi, 2020. "Valuation of Equity Securities, Private Firms, and Startups," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 125-140.
    3. Chlomou, Grigoria & Demirakos, Efthimios, 2020. "How do financial analysts implement the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation framework?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Syed Babar Ali & Manzoor A.Khalidi, 2020. "Valuation of Equity Securities, Private Firms, and Startups," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 16-19.
    5. Alex Kim & Maximilian Muhn & Valeri Nikolaev, 2024. "Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models," Papers 2407.17866, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    6. Mark Wallis, 2023. "Why Do Analysts use a Zero Forecast for Other Comprehensive Income?," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 59(4), pages 1074-1115, December.
    7. Gülcan Erkilet & Gerrit Janke & Rainer Kasperzak, 2022. "How valuation approach choice affects financial analysts’ target price accuracy," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(5), pages 741-779, July.
    8. Partha Mohanram & Brian White & Wuyang Zhao, 2020. "Stock-based compensation, financial analysts, and equity overvaluation," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 1040-1077, September.
    9. Balakrishnan, Karthik & Shivakumar, Lakshmanan & Taori, Peeyush, 2021. "Analysts’ estimates of the cost of equity capital," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Analysts; Sophistication; DCF; Valuation; Errors; Judgments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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