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A news-based economic policy uncertainty index for Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Afees Salisu

    (Centre for Econometrics & Applied Research
    University of Pretoria)

  • Sulaiman Salisu

    (READT International Resources)

  • Subair Salisu

    (READT International Resources)

Abstract

In this study, we develop the first daily news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index for Nigeria, which was previously not covered in recent EPU indices. The need to track economic uncertainties in Nigeria becomes crucial for investment and policy, especially with the renewed interest in the country as an important investment destination. To construct the EPU index, we use relevant keywords from articles in prominent newspapers in the country, covering the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic, with a data scope of January 2010 to November 2022. We evaluate the predictability of the index by examining its connection with economic and financial variables like exchange rates, stock prices, and inflation in Nigeria. The results are robust to alternative model specifications, data frequencies, and multiple forecast horizons. We hope to extend this exercise to other useful indices, including Geopolitical Risk, Financial Stress Indicators, and Monetary Policy Uncertainty, which are not readily available for Africa, including Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Afees Salisu & Sulaiman Salisu & Subair Salisu, 2024. "A news-based economic policy uncertainty index for Nigeria," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 4987-5002, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:58:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s11135-024-01886-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-024-01886-x
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    Cited by:

    1. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Hammed A. Olayinka & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2024. "Dynamic connectedness of economic policy uncertainty in G7 countries and the influence of the USA and UK on non-G7 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-27, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    News; Economic policy uncertainty; Nigeria; Machine learning; Predictability; Forecast evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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