IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/portec/v1y2002i3d10.1007_s10258-002-0012-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the impact of a tax shock in Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Alfredo M. Pereira

    (College of William and Mary)

  • Pedro G. Rodrigues

    (Ministério das Finanças)

Abstract

. In 1999, Cavaco Silva, the Portuguese Prime Minister from 1985 to 1995, proposed a comprehensive tax reform package, which is to this day the basic reference in the tax policy debate in Portugal. A tax shock would consist of 4pp cuts in the corporate income tax and in the firms’ social security contribution rates, and a 5pp reduction in the highest personal income tax rate. These cuts would be financed by combating tax evasion, curbing wasteful public expenditure and, if necessary, by increasing the VAT rate by up to 2pp. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model to evaluate the effects of this tax shock, we find that the long-term GDP gains would be between 0.72% and 2.91% while the effects on lifetime private welfare would range between -0.99% and 0.9%. The efficiency of this tax reform package depends critically on the way the tax cuts are financed to ensure deficit neutrality. Because investment is subject to adjustment costs, to alleviate the long-run trade-off between GDP and welfare, tax policy changes must induce a significant increase in net labor income.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfredo M. Pereira & Pedro G. Rodrigues, 2002. "On the impact of a tax shock in Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(3), pages 205-236, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:1:y:2002:i:3:d:10.1007_s10258-002-0012-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10258-002-0012-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10258-002-0012-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10258-002-0012-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2012. "DGEP - A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Portuguese Economy: Model Documentation," Working Papers 127, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    2. Alfredo Pereira & Rui Pereira, 2013. "Fossil fuel prices and the economic and budgetary challenges of a small energy-importing economy: the case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(3), pages 181-214, December.
    3. Pereira, Alfredo M. & Pereira, Rui M., 2014. "On the environmental, economic and budgetary impacts of fossil fuel prices: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of the Portuguese case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 248-261.
    4. Pereira, Alfredo M. & Pereira, Rui M. & Rodrigues, Pedro G., 2016. "A new carbon tax in Portugal: A missed opportunity to achieve the triple dividend?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 110-118.
    5. Alfredo M. Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2017. "Reducing carbon emissions in Portugal: the relative roles of fossil fuel prices, energy efficiency, and carbon taxation," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(10), pages 1825-1852, October.
    6. Pereira, Alfredo & Pereira, Rui, 2017. "On the Effect of an Increase in the VAT on Electricity in Portugal," MPRA Paper 77594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Pereira, Alfredo & Pereira, Rui, 2016. "On the Optimal Use of Revenues from a CO2 Tax and the Importance of Labor Market Conditions," MPRA Paper 77630, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Rui M. Pereira & Alfredo M. Pereira, 2017. "The Economic and Budgetary Impact of Climate Policy in Portugal: Carbon Taxation in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Endogenous Public Sector Behavior," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(2), pages 231-259, June.
    9. Alfredo Marvao Pereira & Rui Marvao Pereira, 2019. "Achieving the triple dividend in Portugal: a dynamic general-equilibrium evaluation of a carbon tax indexed to emissions trading," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 148-163, April.
    10. Pereira, Alfredo & Pereira, Rui, 2017. "The Role of Electricity for the Decarbonization of the Portuguese Economy - DGEP Technical Report," MPRA Paper 84782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira & Pedro G. Rodrigues, 2014. "On the Long-Term Impact of a Fiscal Devaluation: An Application to the Portuguese Case," Working Papers 116, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:1:y:2002:i:3:d:10.1007_s10258-002-0012-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.