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Economic Modelling of Chronic Kidney Disease: A Systematic Literature Review to Inform Conceptual Model Design

Author

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  • Daniel M. Sugrue

    (Health Economics and Outcomes Research Limited)

  • Thomas Ward

    (Health Economics and Outcomes Research Limited)

  • Sukhvir Rai

    (Health Economics and Outcomes Research Limited)

  • Phil McEwan

    (Health Economics and Outcomes Research Limited)

  • Heleen G. M. Haalen

    (AstraZeneca)

Abstract

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive condition that leads to irreversible damage to the kidneys and is associated with an increased incidence of cardiovascular events and mortality. As novel interventions become available, estimates of economic and clinical outcomes are needed to guide payer reimbursement decisions. Objective The aim of the present study was to systematically review published economic models that simulated long-term outcomes of kidney disease to inform cost-effectiveness evaluations of CKD treatments. Methods The review was conducted across four databases (MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane library and EconLit) and health technology assessment agency websites. Relevant information on each model was extracted. Transition and mortality rates were also extracted to assess the choice of model parameterisation on disease progression by simulating patient’s time with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and time to ESRD/death. The incorporation of cardiovascular disease in a population with CKD was qualitatively assessed across identified models. Results The search identified 101 models that met the criteria for inclusion. Models were classified into CKD models (n = 13), diabetes models with nephropathy (n = 48), ESRD-only models (n = 33) and cardiovascular models with CKD components (n = 7). Typically, published models utilised frameworks based on either (estimated or measured) glomerular filtration rate (GFR) or albuminuria, in line with clinical guideline recommendations for the diagnosis and monitoring of CKD. Generally, two core structures were identified, either a microsimulation model involving albuminuria or a Markov model utilising CKD stages and a linear GFR decline (although further variations on these model structures were also identified). Analysis of parameter variability in CKD disease progression suggested that mean time to ESRD/death was relatively consistent across model types (CKD models 28.2 years; diabetes models with nephropathy 24.6 years). When evaluating time with ESRD, CKD models predicted extended ESRD survival over diabetes models with nephropathy (mean time with ESRD 8.0 vs. 3.8 years). Discussion This review provides an overview of how CKD is typically modelled. While common frameworks were identified, model structure varied, and no single model type was used for the modelling of patients with CKD. In addition, many of the current methods did not explicitly consider patient heterogeneity or underlying disease aetiology, except for diabetes. However, the variability of individual patients’ GFR and albuminuria trajectories perhaps provides rationale for a model structure designed around the prediction of individual patients’ GFR trajectories. Frameworks of future CKD models should be informed and justified based on clinical rationale and availability of data to ensure validity of model results. In addition, further clinical and observational research is warranted to provide a better understanding of prognostic factors and data sources to improve economic modelling accuracy in CKD.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel M. Sugrue & Thomas Ward & Sukhvir Rai & Phil McEwan & Heleen G. M. Haalen, 2019. "Economic Modelling of Chronic Kidney Disease: A Systematic Literature Review to Inform Conceptual Model Design," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 37(12), pages 1451-1468, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:pharme:v:37:y:2019:i:12:d:10.1007_s40273-019-00835-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s40273-019-00835-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Swapnil Hiremath & Greg Knoll & Milton C Weinstein, 2011. "Should the Arteriovenous Fistula Be Created before Starting Dialysis?: A Decision Analytic Approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(12), pages 1-8, December.
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    3. van Os, Nicole & Niessen, Louis W. & Bilo, Henk J. G. & Casparie, Anton F. & van Hout, Ben A., 2000. "Diabetes nephropathy in the Netherlands: a cost effectiveness analysis of national clinical guidelines," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 135-147, April.
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    1. Paul Kairys & Thomas Frese & Paul Voigt & Johannes Horn & Matthias Girndt & Rafael Mikolajczyk, 2022. "Development of the simulation-based German albuminuria screening model (S-GASM) for estimating the cost-effectiveness of albuminuria screening in Germany," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-13, January.

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