Review of Models Used in Economic Analyses of New Oral Treatments for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

It is clear that a number of changes are required in the evaluation of diabetes therapies. First and foremost, the basic models need to be updated to include contemporary important clinical trial data assessing hard clinical outcomes in patients with diabetes. Second, there should be less emphasis on 40-year or lifetime costs and consequences of the therapies and a greater focus on short-term (5-year) and intermediate-term (10-year) outcomes. Practice is continually evolving, and the probability that these models would provide any valid predictions beyond 10 years is remote. Third, all modellers should immediately remove the basic assumption that small clinically inconsequential changes in A 1c , SBP, lipids and weight result in major clinical improvements in patients. Future models should aim to include all relevant treatment outcomes, whether these relate to effects on underlying diabetes and its complications or to short- or long-term side effects of treatment. We need to explore why cost-saving interventions could benefit further from adding patient characteristics, which may be able to better predict the use of lower-cost alternatives. Moreover, the vast array of different clinical, cost and utility data used in the different models reviewed makes it apparent that a uniform methodology should be developed for diabetes economic models. In this manner, future models could be run using the same data, which would allow for more acceptable comparability between studies. Copyright Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014