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Assessing the performance of WRF model in predicting high-impact weather conditions over Central and Western Africa: an ensemble-based approach

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  • P. Moudi Igri

    (University of Yaounde I, Cameroon
    Agence pour la Sécurité de la Navigation Aérienne en Afrique et à Madagascar (ASECNA), Représentation du Cameroon)

  • Roméo S. Tanessong

    (University of Yaounde I, Cameroon)

  • D. A. Vondou

    (University of Yaounde I, Cameroon)

  • Jagabandhu Panda

    (National Institute of Technology Rourkela)

  • Adamou Garba

    (Ecole Africaine de la Météorologie et de l’Aviation Civile (EAMAC))

  • F. Kamga Mkankam

    (University of Yaounde I, Cameroon)

  • A. Kamga

    (African Center for Meteorological Applications and Development (ACMAD))

Abstract

For numerical weather prediction over a particular region, it is important to know the best combination of physical parameterizations available in the considered modelling frame work. The main objective of the study is to obtain the best combination of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model physics for accurately simulating high-impact weather conditions, especially the rainfall over Western and Central Africa. For this purpose, performance of WRF from various simulations with specific configurations is assessed by comparing the results to the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission data. Each of the simulations is carried out for 30 h and initialized at 00 UTC. The spin-up time considered for the study is 6 h. A flood event (21–22 July 2010) is simulated by considering five cumulus physics schemes with multiple cloud microphysics, planetary boundary layer and land surface parameterizations. Analysis of the model results indicates that some of the physics combinations have good agreement with observations, especially the new (GFS) simplified Arakawa–Schubert and the modified Tiedtke cumulus parameterizations combined with Thompson and Morrison microphysics. However, most of the combinations over-estimated the rainfall over the study domain, while the simulations with Betts–Miller–Janjic cumulus parameterizations showed negative bias over designated regions of Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Moudi Igri & Roméo S. Tanessong & D. A. Vondou & Jagabandhu Panda & Adamou Garba & F. Kamga Mkankam & A. Kamga, 2018. "Assessing the performance of WRF model in predicting high-impact weather conditions over Central and Western Africa: an ensemble-based approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(3), pages 1565-1587, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:93:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3368-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3368-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jagabandhu Panda & R. Giri, 2012. "A comprehensive study of surface and upper-air characteristics over two stations on the west coast of India during the occurrence of a cyclonic storm," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1055-1078, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Lamptey & Salah SAHABI ABED & Masilin Gudoshava & Joseph Mutemi & Mary-Jane Bopape & Elijah Adesanya Adefisan & Moudi Pascal Igri & Ibrah Seidou Sanda & Ousmane Ndiaye & Douglas J. Parker & A, 2024. "Challenges and ways forward for sustainable weather and climate services in Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-4, December.
    2. Nafiseh Pegahfar & Maryam Gharaylou & Mohammad Hossein Shoushtari, 2022. "Assessing the performance of the WRF model cumulus parameterization schemes for the simulation of five heavy rainfall events over the Pol-Dokhtar, Iran during 1999–2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 253-279, May.
    3. Derbetini A. Vondou & Guy Merlin Guenang & Tchotchou Lucie Angennes Djiotang & Pierre Honore Kamsu-Tamo, 2021. "Trends and Interannual Variability of Extreme Rainfall Indices over Cameroon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-12, June.

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