IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v90y2018i2d10.1007_s11069-017-3058-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Seismic hazard assessment of northern Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Waseem

    (University of Peshawar
    University ‘G. D’Annunzio’ of Chieti-Pescara)

  • Carlo Giovanni Lai

    (University of Pavia)

  • Enrico Spacone

    (University ‘G. D’Annunzio’ of Chieti-Pescara)

Abstract

This article presents probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of northern Pakistan region carried out to produce macro-seismic hazard maps for the region that define new regional ground motion design parameters for 95-, 475-, 975- and 2475-year return period earthquakes as regional contour maps and horizontal uniform hazard at important cities. The Cornell–McGuire approach (Cornell in Bull Seismol Soc Am 58(05):1583–1606, 1968; McGuire in FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis. US Geological Survey, Open file Report, 76-6768, 1976) is used to carry out the analyses at 0.1° rectangular grid. The seismotectonic model of the region used in analysis consists of shallow and deep area zones differentiated based on the focal depths of the earthquakes. Earthquake catalogue compiled and used in the analysis is a composite catalogue composed of 19,373 events. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) used are calibrated using goodness-of-fitness measures and visual inspection with local strong motion data. Epistemic uncertainty in the GMPEs is taken into account through the logic tree approach. Comparison of ground motions due to deep earthquakes is made for the first time for the region. The comparison between ground motion due to shallow and deep earthquakes indicates that the seismic hazard would be underestimated if the deep earthquakes are excluded. Ground motion values obtained in this study considering all the earthquakes suggest ground motions are dominant towards the north east of the region. The proposed study indicates that the ground motion hazard values suggested by the current Building Code of Pakistan underestimate the seismic hazard. Final results of this study are in close agreement with the recent studies on the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Waseem & Carlo Giovanni Lai & Enrico Spacone, 2018. "Seismic hazard assessment of northern Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(2), pages 563-600, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:90:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3058-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3058-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-017-3058-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-017-3058-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sreevalsa Kolathayar & T. Sitharam & K. Vipin, 2012. "Spatial variation of seismicity parameters across India and adjoining areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 1365-1379, February.
    2. Z. Rafi & C. Lindholm & H. Bungum & A. Laghari & N. Ahmed, 2012. "Probabilistic seismic hazard of Pakistan, Azad-Jammu and Kashmir," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(3), pages 1317-1354, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Waseem & Muhammad Farooq & Qaisar Ali & Mustafa Erdik & Sida Hussian, 2023. "Updated probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2187-2218, July.
    2. Shah Naseer & Tanveer Ul Haq & Abdullah Khan & Javed Iqbal Tanoli & Nangyal Ghani Khan & Faizan-ur-Rehman Qaiser & Syed Tallataf Hussain Shah, 2021. "GIS-based spatial landslide distribution analysis of district Neelum, AJ&K, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 965-989, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zahid Khan & Magdi El-Emam & Muhammad Irfan & Jamal Abdalla, 2013. "Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and spectral accelerations for United Arab Emirates," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 569-589, June.
    2. Naveed Ahmad & Qaisar Ali & Helen Crowley & Rui Pinho, 2014. "Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1889-1955, September.
    3. Muhammad Waseem & Muhammad Asif Khan & Sarfraz Khan, 2019. "Seismic sources for southern Pakistan and seismic hazard assessment of Karachi," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(1), pages 511-536, October.
    4. Sarika Desai & Deepankar Choudhury, 2014. "Spatial variation of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai and surrounding region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1873-1898, April.
    5. Mohammad Ghobadi & Davood Fereidooni, 2012. "Seismic hazard assessment of the city of Hamedan and its vicinity, west of Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 1025-1038, September.
    6. J. Wang & Yih-Min Wu & Duruo Huang & Su-Chin Chang, 2014. "A new procedure to best-fit earthquake magnitude probability distributions: including an example for Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 837-850, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:90:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3058-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.