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Flood risk assessment in a coastal lagoon under present and future scenarios: Ria de Aveiro case study

Author

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  • Carina L. Lopes

    (University of Aveiro)

  • Fátima L. Alves

    (University of Aveiro)

  • João M. Dias

    (University of Aveiro)

Abstract

Floods are one of the major threats to low-lying coastal lagoons, affecting people, socio-economic activities and ecosystem services. This work proposes a methodology to assess present and future flood hazard and risk in west-boundary low-lying coastal lagoons, using the Ria de Aveiro (Portugal) as case study. A multidisciplinary approach supported on Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence model combined with a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis was developed and applied. This comprised the following steps: (1) definition of present and future climate scenarios associated with oceanic, fluvial and combined events, combining sea levels and river discharges for different return periods; (2) characterization of flooding pathway through hydrodynamic modelling; (3) assessment of flood hazard combining flood depth and probability from hydrodynamic simulations; (4) assessment of flood risk calculating the adverse consequences on assets exposed to flood hazard. Results highlight that endangered regions are strongly dependent on the floods origin: oceanic floods threaten settlements and economic activities located along the margins of the lagoon main channels as well as habitats in the lagoon central area; fluvial floods endanger the river’s mouth adjacent areas causing damage in restricted settlements, economic activities and farmland habitats; the combined floods also threaten the margins adjacent to the transition zones. For future scenarios, it is predicted the flood risk increase/decrease for oceanic/fluvial events, as a consequence of mean sea level rise/river discharges reduction predicted for the region. Finally, this work demonstrated the value of the methodology proposed and its potential for flood risk analysis, supporting the decision-making process underlying the flood risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Carina L. Lopes & Fátima L. Alves & João M. Dias, 2017. "Flood risk assessment in a coastal lagoon under present and future scenarios: Ria de Aveiro case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1307-1325, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:89:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3025-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3025-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Volker Meyer & Sebastian Scheuer & Dagmar Haase, 2009. "A multicriteria approach for flood risk mapping exemplified at the Mulde river, Germany," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 48(1), pages 17-39, January.
    2. Paula Freire & Alexandre O. Tavares & Luís Sá & Anabela Oliveira & André B. Fortunato & Pedro P. Santos & Ana Rilo & João L. Gomes & João Rogeiro & Rui Pablo & Pedro J. Pinto, 2016. "A local-scale approach to estuarine flood risk management," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1705-1739, December.
    3. Stijn Temmerman & Patrick Meire & Tjeerd J. Bouma & Peter M. J. Herman & Tom Ysebaert & Huib J. De Vriend, 2013. "Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change," Nature, Nature, vol. 504(7478), pages 79-83, December.
    4. Meyer, Volker & Haase, Dagmar & Scheuer, Sebastian, 2007. "GIS-based multicriteria analysis as decision support in flood risk management," UFZ Discussion Papers 6/2007, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
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    1. Swathi Vemula & K. Srinivasa Raju & S. Sai Veena & A. Santosh Kumar, 2019. "Urban floods in Hyderabad, India, under present and future rainfall scenarios: a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(3), pages 637-655, February.

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