IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v88y2017i1d10.1007_s11069-017-2880-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Base flood estimates compared and linked to engineering modifications of the Missouri River

Author

Listed:
  • Mingming Luo

    (China University of Geosciences
    Washington University in St. Louis)

  • Robert E. Criss

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

Abstract

A novel stage projection method is used to estimate present-day flood levels at 12 sites on the Missouri River, using present-day rating curves and historical discharge estimates. These results are compared to several other flood estimates, including methods based only on historical stage data, and official “100-year” flood (base flood) levels determined from the statistics of discharge. Differences among these estimates vary with location, and their utility depends on river management style. At sites in the upper basin, channel configuration has changed little, but peak discharges have decreased slightly, due to tributary reservoirs and withdrawals. Little difference is seen between the various estimates of flood levels, and historical changes appear to be minimal. In contrast, flow behavior and channel character have been drastically modified along the middle Missouri River by a system of dams and huge reservoirs that were constructed and filled between 1933 and 1964; estimates of flood levels depend on location relative to these facilities. Further downstream, the lower Missouri River is lined with levees and has been transformed into a narrow navigational channel. Results are complex at and above Kansas City, because the channel at many sites has become incised due to decreased sediment loads. Below Kansas City, the water levels of significant floods are now higher than historical values, and official base flood levels are underestimated. Profound changes to the Missouri River have destabilized it in many complex ways, causing it to be less predictable, and many decades or centuries will be required for a new state of equilibrium to develop.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingming Luo & Robert E. Criss, 2017. "Base flood estimates compared and linked to engineering modifications of the Missouri River," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 559-574, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:88:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2880-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2880-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-017-2880-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-017-2880-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R. Collenteur & H. Moel & B. Jongman & G. Di Baldassarre, 2015. "The failed-levee effect: Do societies learn from flood disasters?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 373-388, March.
    2. S. Benameur & A. Benkhaled & D. Meraghni & F. Chebana & A. Necir, 2017. "Complete flood frequency analysis in Abiod watershed, Biskra (Algeria)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(2), pages 519-534, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laura Devitt & Jeffrey Neal & Gemma Coxon & James Savage & Thorsten Wagener, 2023. "Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Johanna Grames & Dieter Grass & Peter M. Kort & Alexia Prskawetz, 2019. "Optimal investment and location decisions of a firm in a flood risk area using impulse control theory," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(4), pages 1051-1077, December.
    3. Eric E. Calloway & Nadine B. Nugent & Katie L. Stern & Ashley Mueller & Amy L. Yaroch, 2022. "Lessons Learned from the 2019 Nebraska Floods: Implications for Emergency Management, Mass Care, and Food Security," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-17, September.
    4. T. K. Drissia & V. Jothiprakash & A. B. Anitha, 2019. "Flood Frequency Analysis Using L Moments: a Comparison between At-Site and Regional Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(3), pages 1013-1037, February.
    5. Fell, Harrison & Kousky, Carolyn, 2015. "The value of levee protection to commercial properties," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 181-188.
    6. Da Kuang & Kuei-Hsien Liao, 2022. "How does flood resistance affect learning from flood experiences? A study of two communities in Central China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-21, July.
    7. Sonali Swetapadma & C. S. P. Ojha, 2020. "Selection of a basin-scale model for flood frequency analysis in Mahanadi river basin, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 519-552, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:88:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2880-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.