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Stochastic finite modeling of ground motion for March 5, 2012, Mw 4.6 earthquake and scenario greater magnitude earthquake in the proximity of Delhi

Author

Listed:
  • Himanshu Mittal

    (National Taiwan University)

  • Yih-Min Wu

    (National Taiwan University)

  • Da-Yi Chen

    (Central Weather Bureau)

  • Wei-An Chao

    (National Taiwan University)

Abstract

In present work, seismic hazard from future earthquake is worked out for Delhi region in terms of different strong motion parameters such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), characteristics frequency and spectral acceleration (Sa). The earthquake of March 5, 2012, is taken as key earthquake for synthesis. Stochastic finite modeling technique based on dynamic corner frequency initially is used to produce and match the ground motion histories where 2012 earthquake was recorded. The matching is attained in terms of PGA, response spectra and duration. Once a good match is found, the ground motion is estimated for higher magnitude earthquakes (i.e., Mw 6.0 and Mw 6.5). Our work demonstrates that a Mw 6.0 magnitude earthquake in proximity of Delhi will deliver PGA estimations of 20–209 gal (1 cm/s2 = 1 gal), the lower values occurring at hard rock sites like NDI (IMD) and DJB. Similarly Mw 6.5 earthquake may produce PGA values ranging between 30 and 323 gal. Finally seismic hazard in Delhi and surrounding regions is estimated from Mw 6.5 magnitude earthquake in terms of PGA, Sa and predominant period. Our computation specifies that at short period, the small structures toward eastern and north-western part of Delhi city may be affected by the earthquakes. For a case of 0.5 s period, Sa values are distributed uniformly at all the places in Delhi, indicating that the buildings with five floors or so may be in danger from future higher magnitude earthquakes. The Sa maps acquired in this study can be utilized to survey the seismic danger of the region and identify vulnerably susceptible areas in and around Delhi from future higher magnitude earthquake.

Suggested Citation

  • Himanshu Mittal & Yih-Min Wu & Da-Yi Chen & Wei-An Chao, 2016. "Stochastic finite modeling of ground motion for March 5, 2012, Mw 4.6 earthquake and scenario greater magnitude earthquake in the proximity of Delhi," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 1123-1146, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:82:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2236-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2236-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sumer Chopra & Vikas Kumar & Anup Suthar & Pankaj Kumar, 2012. "Modeling of strong ground motions for 1991 Uttarkashi, 1999 Chamoli earthquakes, and a hypothetical great earthquake in Garhwal–Kumaun Himalaya," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1141-1159, November.
    2. Sumer Chopra & Dinesh Kumar & B. Rastogi & Pallabee Choudhury & R. Yadav, 2013. "Estimation of seismic hazard in Gujarat region, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(2), pages 1157-1178, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sutapa Chaudhuri & Arumita Roy Chowdhury & Payel Das, 2018. "Implementation of Sugeno: ANFIS for forecasting the seismic moment of large earthquakes over Indo-Himalayan region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(1), pages 391-405, January.
    2. Parveen Kumar & A. Joshi & Sushil Kumar & Sandeep & Sohan Lal, 2018. "Determination of site effect and anelastic attenuation at Kathmandu, Nepal Himalaya region and its use in estimation of source parameters of 25 April 2015 Nepal earthquake Mw = 7.8 and its aftershocks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1003-1023, April.
    3. Brijesh K. Bansal & S. K. Singh & G. Suresh & H. Mittal, 2022. "A source and ground motion study of earthquakes in and near Delhi (the National Capital Region), India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1885-1905, March.

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